luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Chiefs at Broncos, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Chiefs 22–19, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.4 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:00 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 47 yards, worth 25 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 19
Denver Broncos 22

November 16, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Chiefs −3.5

Luck index +58 Broncos lucky · −58 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 6, Broncos win 4.

  1. 1 KC 32 DEN 10
  2. 2 KC 20 DEN 6
  3. 3 KC 20 DEN 10
  4. 4 KC 26 DEN 19
  5. 5 KC 34 DEN 30
  6. 6 KC 9 DEN 7
  7. 7 KC 17 DEN 20
  8. 8 KC 34 DEN 41
  9. 9 KC 20 DEN 32
  10. 10 KC 10 DEN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 58% of them, Broncos 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+12.1%
Chiefs by 9–1615.5%
Chiefs by 1–830.4%
Level after regulation3.1%
Broncos by 1–820.8%
Broncos by 9–1611.6%
Broncos by 17+6.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 8.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • W. Lutz, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • H. Butker, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • H. Butker, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • W. Lutz, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • W. Lutz, 54 yds made · 63% expected
  • W. Lutz, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 14:09 Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1981 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +21% KC KC: Turnover
2 Q3 7:58 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +13% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:11 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +15% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 47 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1981 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +25% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q4 10:04 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +14% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:15 W. Lutz made 54-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 39 of 58 from 45+ before +12% DEN DEN: Field goal
7 Q4 2:05 The Broncos converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +15% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 W. Lutz made 35-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +17% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alex Singleton (DEN LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Powers (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Isiah Pacheco (KC RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 20% · Broncos 80%

Final margin
Broncos by 3
Luck in points
5.7 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 58% · Broncos 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Chiefs · Broncos

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