luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Commanders vs Dolphins, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Commanders 16–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Dolphins win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 56 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:15 left): M. Gay missed a 56-yard field goal, worth 35 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final (OT)

Washington Commanders 13
Miami Dolphins 16

November 16, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −2.5

Luck index +43 Dolphins lucky · −43 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 4, Dolphins win 6.

  1. 1 WAS 37 MIA 17
  2. 2 WAS 26 MIA 14
  3. 3 WAS 12 MIA 6
  4. 4 WAS 23 MIA 20
  5. 5 WAS 17 MIA 19
  6. 6 WAS 31 MIA 35
  7. 7 WAS 13 MIA 20
  8. 8 WAS 24 MIA 34
  9. 9 WAS 10 MIA 24
  10. 10 WAS 7 MIA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 43% of them, Dolphins 57%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+6.5%
Commanders by 9–1614.0%
Commanders by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation2.6%
Dolphins by 1–828.9%
Dolphins by 9–1616.0%
Dolphins by 17+12.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.6 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 3, without the luck Commanders by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • M. Gay, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Patterson, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Gay, 51 yds missed · 66% expected
  • M. Gay, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Gay, 56 yds missed · 61% expected
  • R. Patterson, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 6 for 31 yards, Dolphins 4 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:39 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +0.8 pts
Q1 5:27 Low Block on the Dolphins (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 15 yards +3% WAS +1.4 pts
Q1 5:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Tyrel Dodson), 4 yards 0% WAS +0.1 pts
Q1 2:47 False Start on the Commanders (Chris Rodriguez), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIA +0.2 pts
Q2 5:45 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Percy Butler), 5 yards +2% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 4:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Jack Jones), 15 yards +5% WAS +1.3 pts
Q2 0:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Deebo Samuel), 10 yards +2% MIA +0.8 pts
Q3 9:12 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Javon Kinlaw), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q3 6:06 False Start on the Commanders, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.6 pts
Q3 3:54 False Start on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.6 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 6:09 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +12% WAS MIA: Touchdown
2 Q4 10:49 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 6:06 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +16% MIA WAS: Missed field goal
4 Q4 4:21 The Commanders fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% MIA WAS: Missed field goal
5 Q4 1:44 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +21% WAS MIA: End of game
6 Q4 1:05 The Commanders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +16% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:15 The game turned hereM. Gay missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 54 of 80 from 45+ before +35% MIA WAS: Turnover
8 Q4 0:10 J. Waddle dropped a catchable passDrops · 18 drops on 296 catchable balls before this +25% WAS MIA: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyreek Hill (MIA WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Rasul Douglas (MIA CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jayden Daniels (WAS QB), out, replaced by m.mariota · 3.0 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Terry McLaurin (WAS WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Daron Payne (WAS DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Trey Amos (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 48% · Dolphins 52%

Final margin
Dolphins by 3
Luck in points
5.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 43% · Dolphins 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Commanders · Dolphins

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