luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Ravens at Browns, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 23–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:39 left): the Ravens converted 4th & 1, worth 36 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 23
Cleveland Browns 16

November 16, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +1 Ravens about even · −1 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Browns win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 40 CLE 3
  2. 2 BAL 44 CLE 13
  3. 3 BAL 37 CLE 10
  4. 4 BAL 37 CLE 13
  5. 5 BAL 24 CLE 3
  6. 6 BAL 26 CLE 7
  7. 7 BAL 21 CLE 6
  8. 8 BAL 19 CLE 7
  9. 9 BAL 27 CLE 19
  10. 10 BAL 16 CLE 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 99% of them, Browns 1%. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+87.5%
Ravens by 9–169.7%
Ravens by 1–82.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Browns by 1–80.5%
Browns by 9–160.0%
Browns by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 8.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 46 yds made · 71% expected
  • T. Loop, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Loop, 44 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:26 The Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% CLE BAL: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 7:53 The Ravens were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +23% CLE BAL: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:27 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Derrick Henry), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 4128 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 +11% CLE CLE: Turnover
4 Q3 4:44 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% BAL CLE: Punt
5 Q3 4:37 The Ravens were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% CLE BAL: Field goal
6 Q4 8:40 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% BAL BAL: Field goal
7 Q4 4:45 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Browns (Shedeur Sanders), 15 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +20% BAL CLE: Punt
8 Q4 2:39 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +36% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cornelius Lucas (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tavius Robinson (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 89% · Browns 11%

Final margin
Ravens by 7
Luck in points
1.0 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 99% · Browns 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Ravens · Browns

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