Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025
Ravens at Browns, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Browns 23–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Browns.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:53 left): Return touchdown by the Browns, worth 23 points of win probability to the Browns.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 23 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Ravens about even · −1 Browns
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Browns win 0.
- 1 BAL 41 CLE 0
- 2 BAL 34 CLE 3
- 3 BAL 33 CLE 7
- 4 BAL 33 CLE 10
- 5 BAL 27 CLE 7
- 6 BAL 24 CLE 7
- 7 BAL 25 CLE 10
- 8 BAL 16 CLE 5
- 9 BAL 17 CLE 10
- 10 BAL 13 CLE 10
Your call
Did the Ravens earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 99% of them, Browns 1%. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 87.2% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 9.0% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 2.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Browns by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- T. Loop, 25 yds made · 97% expected
- A. Szmyt, 30 yds made · 94% expected
- A. Szmyt, 24 yds made · 97% expected
- A. Szmyt, 46 yds made · 71% expected
- T. Loop, 24 yds made · 97% expected
- T. Loop, 44 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: Ravens 4 for 26 yards, Browns 5 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:06 | Illegal Formation on the Browns, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:45 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Maliek Collins), 2 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Jake Hummel), 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% CLE +2.1 pts |
| Q3 12:04 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +3% BAL +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:27 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Derrick Henry), 11 yards, wiping out the play | +11% CLE +2.0 pts |
| Q3 5:13 | Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% CLE +0.4 pts |
| Q3 4:28 | Defensive Delay of Game on the Ravens (Kyle Hamilton), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CLE +0.4 pts |
| Q4 4:59 | Offensive Holding on the Browns (Jerome Baker), 10 yards | +9% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:45 | Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Shedeur Sanders), 15 yards | +10% BAL +1.4 pts |
Ravens penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:26 | The Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% CLE | BAL: Opp touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 7:53 | The Ravens were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throwsReturn touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams | +23% CLE | BAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 6:27 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Derrick Henry), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 4128 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 | +11% CLE | CLE: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 4:37 | The Ravens were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +11% CLE | BAL: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 8:40 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +14% BAL | BAL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 4:45 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Browns (Shedeur Sanders), 15 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet | +16% BAL | CLE: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 2:39 | The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +10% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:02 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +10% BAL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cornelius Lucas (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
- Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.1 pts
- Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out · 0.4 pts
- Tavius Robinson (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 95% · Browns 5%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 7
- Luck in points
- 2.5 for the Browns
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 9.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 99% · Browns 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Ravens · 
Browns
More from Week 11 2025
- Jets at Patriots NE 27–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Commanders vs Dolphins MIA 16–13 · replay 57% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 30–27 · replay 78% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings CHI 19–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 34–12 · replay 87% for the winner
- Packers at Giants GB 27–20 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 16–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chargers at Jaguars JAX 35–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bills BUF 44–32 · replay 63% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 21–19 · replay 66% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals SF 41–22 · replay 76% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos DEN 22–19 · replay 44% for the winner
- Lions at Eagles PHI 16–9 · replay 19% for the winner
- Cowboys at Raiders DAL 33–16 · replay 94% for the winner