luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Bengals at Steelers, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Bengals 34–12 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.5 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:51 left): the Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 56 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 12
Pittsburgh Steelers 34

November 16, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −5.5

Luck index +25 Steelers lucky · −25 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 3, Steelers win 7.

  1. 1 CIN 27 PIT 13
  2. 2 CIN 23 PIT 18
  3. 3 CIN 16 PIT 14
  4. 4 CIN 10 PIT 13
  5. 5 CIN 9 PIT 13
  6. 6 CIN 17 PIT 23
  7. 7 CIN 7 PIT 16
  8. 8 CIN 10 PIT 23
  9. 9 CIN 3 PIT 20
  10. 10 CIN 0 PIT 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 25% of them, Steelers 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+2.4%
Bengals by 9–166.2%
Bengals by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation4.1%
Steelers by 1–827.9%
Steelers by 9–1623.7%
Steelers by 17+21.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 22. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 27.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • E. McPherson, 43 yds made · 79% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. McPherson, 48 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:46 The Bengals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:16 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% PIT PIT: Punt
3 Q2 12:54 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 26 flags in 5893 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +7% CIN CIN: Punt
4 Q3 9:18 The Steelers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q3 7:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 29 flags in 5998 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +16% CIN CIN: Opp touchdown
6 Q3 7:38 The Steelers converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +10% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q3 3:23 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% CIN CIN: Opp touchdown
8 Q3 0:51 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +56% PIT CIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Darius Slay (PIT CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (PIT S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Trey Hendrickson (CIN DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Gesicki (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 0% · Steelers 100%

Final margin
Steelers by 22
Luck in points
5.4 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 27.4
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 25% · Steelers 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Bengals · Steelers

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