luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Bengals at Steelers, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Bengals 34–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:51 left): Return touchdown by the Steelers, worth 29 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 12
Pittsburgh Steelers 34

November 16, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −5.5

Luck index +13 Steelers about even · −13 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Steelers win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 19 PIT 13
  2. 2 CIN 27 PIT 29
  3. 3 CIN 21 PIT 26
  4. 4 CIN 10 PIT 16
  5. 5 CIN 10 PIT 19
  6. 6 CIN 24 PIT 34
  7. 7 CIN 3 PIT 16
  8. 8 CIN 16 PIT 33
  9. 9 CIN 7 PIT 29
  10. 10 CIN 20 PIT 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 13% of them, Steelers 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.4%
Bengals by 9–162.5%
Bengals by 1–89.5%
Level after regulation1.4%
Steelers by 1–821.7%
Steelers by 9–1627.8%
Steelers by 17+36.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Steelers by 22, without the luck Steelers by 24.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • E. McPherson, 43 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. McPherson, 48 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 8 for 67 yards, Steelers 8 for 76 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:23 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Nick Herbig), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.4 pts
Q1 5:10 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Yahya Black), 1 yard 0% CIN +0.1 pts
Q1 3:39 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Myles Murphy), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.5 pts
Q2 12:54 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 15 yards +7% CIN +1.3 pts
Q2 12:06 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q2 9:05 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q2 1:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 12 yards +2% PIT +0.2 pts
Q2 0:59 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards +3% CIN +0.2 pts
Q2 0:55 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Myles Murphy), 15 yards +4% PIT +0.6 pts
Q2 0:35 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Joseph Ossai), 10 yards +3% PIT +0.6 pts
Q3 7:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards, wiping out the play +16% CIN +2.4 pts
Q3 0:37 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Tanner Hudson), 10 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 13:28 Disqualification on the Steelers (Jalen Ramsey), 15 yards +2% CIN +1.7 pts
Q4 9:51 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.3 pts
Q4 8:11 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q4 5:36 Face Mask on the Steelers (Kaleb Johnson), 15 yards +1% CIN +1.4 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:46 The Bengals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:16 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +6% PIT PIT: Punt
3 Q2 12:54 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 26 flags in 5893 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +7% CIN CIN: Punt
4 Q3 9:18 The Steelers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q3 7:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 29 flags in 5998 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +16% CIN CIN: Opp touchdown
6 Q3 7:38 The Steelers converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +10% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q3 3:23 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% CIN CIN: Opp touchdown
8 Q3 0:51 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +29% PIT CIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Darius Slay (PIT CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (PIT S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Trey Hendrickson (CIN DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Gesicki (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 0% · Steelers 100%

Final margin
Steelers by 22
Luck in points
2.7 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 24.7
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 13% · Steelers 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Bengals · Steelers

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