2025 season · final
Cincinnati Bengals, 2025: game by game
The Bengals went 6–11 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.3 wins. Luck cost them 1.3: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.
Every game
How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Browns | W 17–16 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 2 | vs Jaguars | W 31–27 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 3 | @ Vikings | L 10–48 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 4 | @ Broncos | L 3–28 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 5 | vs Lions | L 24–37 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 6 | @ Packers | L 18–27 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 7 | vs Steelers | W 33–31 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 8 | vs Jets | L 38–39 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 9 | vs Bears | L 42–47 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 11 | @ Steelers | L 12–34 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 12 | vs Patriots | L 20–26 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 13 | @ Ravens | W 32–14 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 14 | @ Bills | L 34–39 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 15 | vs Ravens | L 0–24 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 16 | @ Dolphins | W 45–21 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 17 | vs Cardinals | W 37–14 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 18 | vs Browns | L 18–20 | 98% | −98 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.50 | +15.8 |
| Drops | +0.24 | +10.4 |
| Kicks | +0.12 | +5.1 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.05 | +2.0 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +0.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.27 | −0.9 |
| Injuries | −0.33 | −15.3 |