luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Bengals at Bills, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Bengals 39–34, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bills win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:35 left): Return touchdown by the Bills, worth 65 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 34
Buffalo Bills 39

December 7, 2025 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −6

Luck index +42 Bills lucky · −42 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 4, Bills win 6.

  1. 1 CIN 30 BUF 13
  2. 2 CIN 38 BUF 28
  3. 3 CIN 24 BUF 19
  4. 4 CIN 21 BUF 19
  5. 5 CIN 27 BUF 29
  6. 6 CIN 20 BUF 24
  7. 7 CIN 34 BUF 41
  8. 8 CIN 14 BUF 24
  9. 9 CIN 10 BUF 24
  10. 10 CIN 10 BUF 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 42% of them, Bills 58%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+6.7%
Bengals by 9–1612.2%
Bengals by 1–820.6%
Level after regulation2.9%
Bills by 1–830.0%
Bills by 9–1615.9%
Bills by 17+11.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 13.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:23 The Bills converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:36 The Bills converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Bengals (Joseph Ossai), 1 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1930 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +14% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 21 flags in 6184 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:40 The Bills converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% BUF BUF: Turnover
5 Q3 0:52 The Bills fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% CIN BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:35 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams +65% BUF CIN: Turnover
7 Q4 5:19 The Bengals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% BUF CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:09 The Bills converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Spencer Brown (BUF T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Joey Bosa (BUF DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (BUF S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Terrel Bernard (BUF LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Palmer (BUF WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Hoecht (BUF DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Shemar Stewart (CIN DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 6% · Bills 94%

Final margin
Bills by 5
Luck in points
8.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 13.9
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 42% · Bills 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Bengals · Bills

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