luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Dolphins at Jets, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Jets 34–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 57% favorites.

Final

Miami Dolphins 34
New York Jets 10

December 7, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −2.5

Luck index +3 Dolphins about even · −3 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 10, Jets win 0.

  1. 1 MIA 44 NYJ 7
  2. 2 MIA 34 NYJ 3
  3. 3 MIA 30 NYJ 3
  4. 4 MIA 24 NYJ 0
  5. 5 MIA 23 NYJ 3
  6. 6 MIA 17 NYJ 0
  7. 7 MIA 24 NYJ 10
  8. 8 MIA 21 NYJ 10
  9. 9 MIA 30 NYJ 22
  10. 10 MIA 23 NYJ 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 97% of them, Jets 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+76.8%
Dolphins by 9–1613.5%
Dolphins by 1–86.3%
Level after regulation0.5%
Jets by 1–82.3%
Jets by 9–160.7%
Jets by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 16.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • N. Folk, 31 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Patterson, 53 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:35 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% MIA NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 0:42 Return touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +5% NYJ NYJ: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 10:40 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +3% NYJ MIA: Punt
4 Q2 1:28 M. Taylor dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 49 catchable balls before this +3% MIA NYJ: Turnover
5 Q2 1:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 39 yardsJudgment calls · 21 flags in 7278 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +6% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
6 Q2 0:37 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% MIA NYJ: End of half
7 Q3 12:56 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% MIA NYJ: Punt
8 Q3 1:07 The Jets converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% NYJ NYJ: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Fields (NYJ QB), out, replaced by b.cook · 1.4 pts
  • Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andre Cisco (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tony Adams (NYJ S), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 100% · Jets 0%

Final margin
Dolphins by 24
Luck in points
7.8 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 16.2
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 97% · Jets 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Dolphins · Jets

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