luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Saints at Buccaneers, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Buccaneers 24–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Saints win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 5.5 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:41 left): the Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 23 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

New Orleans Saints 24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

December 7, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −7.5

Luck index +49 Saints lucky · −49 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 5, Buccaneers win 5.

  1. 1 NO 23 TB 0
  2. 2 NO 17 TB 3
  3. 3 NO 23 TB 13
  4. 4 NO 23 TB 17
  5. 5 NO 19 TB 17
  6. 6 NO 7 TB 9
  7. 7 NO 14 TB 18
  8. 8 NO 9 TB 19
  9. 9 NO 7 TB 23
  10. 10 NO 12 TB 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 51% of them, Buccaneers 49%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+9.7%
Saints by 9–1615.2%
Saints by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation6.3%
Buccaneers by 1–821.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1615.1%
Buccaneers by 17+9.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 13.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Smyth, 48 yds missed · 76% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Smyth, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Quincy Riley), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 426 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +15% TB TB: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 2:42 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +12% NO TB: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 0:57 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +13% TB NO: Touchdown
4 Q3 10:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Jonas Sanker), 28 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 735 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +14% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:10 The Saints converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +12% NO NO: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:00 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedD. Vele dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 64 catchable balls before this +12% TB NO: Punt
7 Q4 1:41 The Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +23% TB TB: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:27 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +14% NO –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tristan Wirfs (TB T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Taliese Fuaga (NO T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Justin Reid (NO S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 92% · Buccaneers 8%

Final margin
Saints by 4
Luck in points
9.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 13.7
Replay with same day's form
Saints 51% · Buccaneers 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Saints · Buccaneers

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