luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Broncos at Raiders, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Raiders 24–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.2 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:44 left): Return touchdown by the Broncos, worth 13 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 24
Las Vegas Raiders 17

December 7, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Broncos −8.5

Luck index +28 Broncos lucky · −28 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 7, Raiders win 3.

  1. 1 DEN 28 LV 6
  2. 2 DEN 25 LV 10
  3. 3 DEN 22 LV 10
  4. 4 DEN 17 LV 7
  5. 5 DEN 23 LV 17
  6. 6 DEN 17 LV 13
  7. 7 DEN 16 LV 14
  8. 8 DEN 17 LV 19
  9. 9 DEN 13 LV 20
  10. 10 DEN 7 LV 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 72% of them, Raiders 28%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+18.8%
Broncos by 9–1623.2%
Broncos by 1–829.4%
Level after regulation5.3%
Raiders by 1–815.8%
Raiders by 9–166.2%
Raiders by 17+1.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 7.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 46 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:54 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% DEN DEN: Punt
2 Q2 10:16 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% LV DEN: Punt
3 Q2 6:44 Return touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams +13% DEN DEN: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 0:25 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% LV DEN: End of half
5 Q2 0:14 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% DEN LV: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 10:33 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% LV LV: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 2:42 The Raiders converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +8% LV LV: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 14:19 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% DEN LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Meredith (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jackson Powers-Johnson (LV G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Matt Peart (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 94% · Raiders 6%

Final margin
Broncos by 7
Luck in points
0.1 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 7.1
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 72% · Raiders 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Broncos · Raiders

More from Week 14 2025