luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Broncos at Raiders, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Raiders 24–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:44 left): Return touchdown by the Broncos, worth 13 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 24
Las Vegas Raiders 17

December 7, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Broncos −8.5

Luck index +27 Broncos lucky · −27 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 7, Raiders win 3.

  1. 1 DEN 27 LV 3
  2. 2 DEN 23 LV 6
  3. 3 DEN 24 LV 13
  4. 4 DEN 22 LV 14
  5. 5 DEN 20 LV 14
  6. 6 DEN 3 LV 0
  7. 7 DEN 23 LV 21
  8. 8 DEN 10 LV 13
  9. 9 DEN 9 LV 16
  10. 10 DEN 12 LV 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 73% of them, Raiders 27%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+16.0%
Broncos by 9–1624.3%
Broncos by 1–831.7%
Level after regulation6.1%
Raiders by 1–815.4%
Raiders by 9–165.0%
Raiders by 17+1.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 7, without the luck Broncos by 6.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 46 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 8 for 50 yards, Raiders 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:05 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q1 6:10 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +0.8 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Kris Abrams-Draine), 10 yards +3% LV +0.9 pts
Q2 9:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 7 yards +3% LV +1.3 pts
Q2 7:52 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Nik Bonitto), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% LV +0.2 pts
Q3 10:33 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% LV +1.6 pts
Q3 9:38 Face Mask on the Raiders (Jamal Adams), 15 yards +5% DEN +1.5 pts
Q3 4:05 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Broncos (Wil Lutz), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q4 10:41 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Thomas Booker), 5 yards +1% DEN +0.9 pts
Q4 3:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 8 yards 0% LV +0.7 pts
Q4 0:16 Defensive Delay of Game on the Broncos (Brandon Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.4 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:54 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% DEN DEN: Punt
2 Q2 6:44 Return touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams +13% DEN DEN: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 0:25 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +7% LV DEN: End of half
4 Q2 0:14 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +8% DEN LV: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 0:07 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +4% DEN LV: Punt
6 Q3 10:33 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% LV LV: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 9:38 Face Mask on the Raiders (Jamal Adams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 3660 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +5% DEN DEN: Touchdown
8 Q3 2:42 The Raiders converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +4% LV LV: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Meredith (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jackson Powers-Johnson (LV G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Matt Peart (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 94% · Raiders 6%

Final margin
Broncos by 7
Luck in points
0.6 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 73% · Raiders 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Broncos · Raiders

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