luckadjusted

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Patriots at Bengals, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Bengals 26–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:51 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 34 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 26
Cincinnati Bengals 20

November 23, 2025 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −7.5

Luck index +18 Patriots about even · −18 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 8, Bengals win 2.

  1. 1 NE 37 CIN 9
  2. 2 NE 35 CIN 15
  3. 3 NE 37 CIN 20
  4. 4 NE 34 CIN 20
  5. 5 NE 26 CIN 16
  6. 6 NE 30 CIN 23
  7. 7 NE 36 CIN 31
  8. 8 NE 19 CIN 17
  9. 9 NE 18 CIN 21
  10. 10 NE 13 CIN 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 82% of them, Bengals 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+32.0%
Patriots by 9–1621.4%
Patriots by 1–827.4%
Level after regulation1.9%
Bengals by 1–810.7%
Bengals by 9–165.1%
Bengals by 17+1.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 1.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 54 yds made · 65% expected
  • A. Borregales, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • E. McPherson, 63 yds made · 53% expected
  • A. Borregales, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • A. Borregales, 19 yds made · 99% expected
  • A. Borregales, 52 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:28 The Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +16% CIN NE: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:51 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +34% NE CIN: Punt
3 Q3 12:39 The Patriots converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% NE NE: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 7:54 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +14% CIN NE: Field goal
5 Q4 13:15 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedC. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 121 catchable balls before this +16% NE CIN: Punt
6 Q4 3:01 The Patriots converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% NE NE: Field goal
7 Q4 0:51 The Bengals converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +16% CIN CIN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:23 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +17% NE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR), out (IR) · 1.8 pts
  • Trey Hendrickson (CIN DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shemar Stewart (CIN DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Milton Williams (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 59% · Bengals 41%

Final margin
Patriots by 6
Luck in points
7.7 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 82% · Bengals 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Patriots · Bengals

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