luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 24, 2025

Panthers at 49ers, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Panthers 20–9, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 71% favorites.

Final

Carolina Panthers 9
San Francisco 49ers 20

November 24, 2025 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −7.5

Luck index +21 49ers about even · −21 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, 49ers win 8.

  1. 1 CAR 27 SF 15
  2. 2 CAR 12 SF 9
  3. 3 CAR 17 SF 19
  4. 4 CAR 16 SF 20
  5. 5 CAR 17 SF 24
  6. 6 CAR 17 SF 27
  7. 7 CAR 14 SF 27
  8. 8 CAR 10 SF 27
  9. 9 CAR 10 SF 30
  10. 10 CAR 7 SF 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 21% of them, 49ers 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+1.8%
Panthers by 9–165.9%
Panthers by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation2.3%
49ers by 1–827.4%
49ers by 9–1621.1%
49ers by 17+29.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.9 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 11, without the luck Panthers by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Fitzgerald, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 47 yds made · 76% expected
  • M. Gay, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 57 yds missed · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 4 for 30 yards, 49ers 2 for 6 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:40 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% SF +1.9 pts
Q2 0:28 Intentional Grounding on the Panthers (Bryce Young), 10 yards +3% SF +0.9 pts
Q3 14:21 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Mitchell Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% SF +1.5 pts
Q3 0:49 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Jordan Elliott), 1 yard 0% CAR +0.1 pts
Q4 5:38 Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.8 pts
Q4 4:08 Illegal Touch Pass on the Panthers (Xavier Legette), 0 yards 0% SF 0.0 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:34 The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:40 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% SF SF: Turnover
3 Q2 8:17 T. McMillan dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 59 catchable balls before this +6% SF CAR: Punt
4 Q2 8:00 The 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% SF SF: Turnover
5 Q2 0:28 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Panthers (Bryce Young), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2435 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +7% SF CAR: Punt
6 Q3 15:00 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CAR CAR: Punt
7 Q3 14:21 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Mitchell Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 314 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +6% SF SF: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:21 The Panthers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +6% CAR CAR: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Fred Warner (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Connor Colby (SF OL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mykel Williams (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tatum Bethune (SF LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cade Mays (CAR C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Rozeboom (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 56% · 49ers 44%

Final margin
49ers by 11
Luck in points
11.9 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 21% · 49ers 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Panthers · 49ers

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