luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Steelers at Bears, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Steelers 31–28, but the replays lean toward the Steelers: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Bears were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:14 left): Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 30 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 28
Chicago Bears 31

November 23, 2025 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −3

Luck index +69 Bears very lucky · −69 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 7, Bears win 3.

  1. 1 PIT 31 CHI 3
  2. 2 PIT 26 CHI 6
  3. 3 PIT 31 CHI 16
  4. 4 PIT 27 CHI 16
  5. 5 PIT 24 CHI 17
  6. 6 PIT 26 CHI 21
  7. 7 PIT 15 CHI 13
  8. 8 PIT 19 CHI 21
  9. 9 PIT 13 CHI 20
  10. 10 PIT 17 CHI 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 69% of them, Bears 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+22.6%
Steelers by 9–1621.4%
Steelers by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation3.9%
Bears by 1–815.7%
Bears by 9–167.8%
Bears by 17+4.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Bears by 3, without the luck Bears by 6.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Steelers 6 for 41 yards, Bears 7 for 83 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Payton Wilson), 6 yards +2% CHI +1.2 pts
Q1 0:30 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Durham Smythe), 10 yards +2% PIT +0.9 pts
Q1 0:24 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +3% PIT +1.4 pts
Q2 2:34 False Start on the Steelers (Jonnu Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.3 pts
Q2 1:13 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Nick Herbig), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +14% CHI +3.6 pts
Q2 0:35 Illegal Shift on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% PIT +1.1 pts
Q3 11:31 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Ben Skowronek), 10 yards +5% CHI +0.5 pts
Q3 9:47 Taunting on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 15 yards +6% PIT +1.3 pts
Q3 4:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Nick McCloud), 27 yards +11% PIT +2.2 pts
Q4 9:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Nahshon Wright), 11 yards +5% PIT +1.3 pts
Q4 7:41 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards +1% CHI +0.5 pts
Q4 5:30 Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.6 pts
Q4 2:14 Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +30% CHI +2.4 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:54 The Bears fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +25% PIT CHI: Turnover
2 Q2 1:13 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Nick Herbig), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1697 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +14% CHI CHI: Field goal
3 Q2 0:03 C. Santos made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 44 of 62 from 45+ before +10% CHI CHI: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Nick McCloud), 27 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2354 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 +11% PIT PIT: Turnover
5 Q3 4:04 The Steelers fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% CHI PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:14 Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +30% CHI CHI: Punt
7 Q4 0:39 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% CHI PIT: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:21 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +12% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tremaine Edmunds (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Theo Benedet (CHI OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • T.J. Edwards (CHI LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Dayo Odeyingbo (CHI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Noah Sewell (CHI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (PIT S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Aaron Rodgers (PIT QB), out, replaced by m.rudolph · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 15% · Bears 85%

Final margin
Bears by 3
Luck in points
3.9 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 6.9
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 69% · Bears 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Steelers · Bears

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