luckadjusted

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Steelers at Bears, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Steelers 31–28, but the Steelers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.0 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Bears were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:14 left): Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 30 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 28
Chicago Bears 31

November 23, 2025 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −3

Luck index +69 Bears very lucky · −69 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 7, Bears win 3.

  1. 1 PIT 32 CHI 7
  2. 2 PIT 34 CHI 17
  3. 3 PIT 17 CHI 3
  4. 4 PIT 24 CHI 14
  5. 5 PIT 31 CHI 24
  6. 6 PIT 20 CHI 16
  7. 7 PIT 26 CHI 24
  8. 8 PIT 9 CHI 12
  9. 9 PIT 16 CHI 26
  10. 10 PIT 13 CHI 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 69% of them, Bears 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+22.5%
Steelers by 9–1620.8%
Steelers by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation4.2%
Bears by 1–816.0%
Bears by 9–167.5%
Bears by 17+5.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 10.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:54 The Bears fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +25% PIT CHI: Turnover
2 Q2 12:06 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Bears fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% PIT CHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:32 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +20% PIT PIT: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:13 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Nick Herbig), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1697 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +14% CHI CHI: Field goal
5 Q3 8:33 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +12% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q3 4:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Nick McCloud), 27 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2354 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 +11% PIT PIT: Turnover
7 Q4 2:14 Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +30% CHI CHI: Punt
8 Q4 0:21 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +12% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tremaine Edmunds (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Theo Benedet (CHI OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • T.J. Edwards (CHI LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Dayo Odeyingbo (CHI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Noah Sewell (CHI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (PIT S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Aaron Rodgers (PIT QB), out, replaced by m.rudolph · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 7% · Bears 93%

Final margin
Bears by 3
Luck in points
7.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 10.8
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 69% · Bears 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Steelers · Bears

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