luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Jaguars at Cardinals, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Cardinals 27–24, but the replays lean toward the Cardinals: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 4:07 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 4, worth 37 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final (OT)

Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Arizona Cardinals 24

November 23, 2025 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −2.5

Luck index +67 Jaguars very lucky · −67 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 3, Cardinals win 7.

  1. 1 JAX 41 ARI 23
  2. 2 JAX 20 ARI 12
  3. 3 JAX 23 ARI 20
  4. 4 JAX 24 ARI 26
  5. 5 JAX 28 ARI 33
  6. 6 JAX 36 ARI 43
  7. 7 JAX 17 ARI 28
  8. 8 JAX 24 ARI 40
  9. 9 JAX 24 ARI 44
  10. 10 JAX 6 ARI 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 33% of them, Cardinals 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+6.5%
Jaguars by 9–169.2%
Jaguars by 1–815.1%
Level after regulation2.9%
Cardinals by 1–824.0%
Cardinals by 9–1619.7%
Cardinals by 17+22.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 3, without the luck Jaguars by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 52 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. Ryland, 33 yds missed · 94% expected
  • C. Ryland, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Little, 52 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 7 for 60 yards, Cardinals 7 for 53 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:18 Encroachment on the Cardinals (Dalvin Tomlinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q1 5:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Dennis Gardeck), 4 yards +2% ARI +0.5 pts
Q2 12:10 Illegal Contact on the Jaguars (Greg Newsome II), 5 yards +4% ARI +1.5 pts
Q2 12:03 Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% JAX +0.8 pts
Q2 10:56 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Devin Lloyd), 15 yards +7% ARI +1.0 pts
Q2 6:06 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 6 yards +4% JAX +1.2 pts
Q2 3:33 Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Jacoby Brissett), 12 yards +3% JAX +1.1 pts
Q2 2:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Maason Smith), 6 yards · pre-snap +6% ARI +2.2 pts
Q3 11:47 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% JAX +0.8 pts
Q3 9:25 Low Block on the Jaguars, 15 yards +4% ARI +1.4 pts
Q3 5:16 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Greg Newsome II), 10 yards +3% ARI +0.9 pts
Q4 5:20 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (BJ Ojulari), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.4 pts
Q4 2:23 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +23% JAX +1.8 pts
Q4 0:49 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +14% JAX +0.5 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:34 The Jaguars fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams +26% ARI JAX: Field goal
2 Q4 7:19 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +13% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q4 2:23 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1276 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +23% JAX JAX: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 1:44 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +17% ARI JAX: End of game
5 Q4 0:49 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +14% JAX ARI: Field goal
6 OT 7:51 C. Little made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 14 of 19 from 45+ before +27% ARI –
7 OT 4:09 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +18% JAX ARI: Turnover on downs
8 OT 4:07 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +37% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.brissett · 2.4 pts
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jonah Williams (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Will Johnson (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zay Jones (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mack Wilson (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Baron Browning (ARI LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Trey Benson (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Anton Harrison (JAX OL), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (JAX CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Travis Hunter (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Murray (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Hunter Long (JAX TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 72% · Cardinals 28%

Final margin
Jaguars by 3
Luck in points
2.1 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 33% · Cardinals 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Jaguars · Cardinals

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