luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Browns at Bengals, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Bengals 20–18, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 10 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 34 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:19 left): Return touchdown by the Browns, worth 37 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 20
Cincinnati Bengals 18

January 4, 2026 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −9.5

Luck index +98 Browns very lucky · −98 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Bengals win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 14 CIN 17
  2. 2 CLE 20 CIN 27
  3. 3 CLE 17 CIN 27
  4. 4 CLE 3 CIN 16
  5. 5 CLE 12 CIN 28
  6. 6 CLE 10 CIN 28
  7. 7 CLE 3 CIN 23
  8. 8 CLE 17 CIN 41
  9. 9 CLE 6 CIN 33
  10. 10 CLE 6 CIN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 2% of them, Bengals 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.0%
Browns by 9–160.2%
Browns by 1–81.3%
Level after regulation0.6%
Bengals by 1–86.7%
Bengals by 9–1617.6%
Bengals by 17+73.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 2, without the luck Bengals by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Szmyt, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 4 for 40 yards, Bengals 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:43 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +1.2 pts
Q1 10:22 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.8 pts
Q1 9:40 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.2 pts
Q1 1:11 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns (Devin Bush Jr.), 15 yards +3% CIN +1.4 pts
Q2 14:19 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns (Sam Webb), 15 yards +4% CIN +1.3 pts
Q2 9:59 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +1.2 pts
Q2 9:44 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Cedric Johnson), 15 yards +5% CLE +1.8 pts
Q2 7:09 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.6 pts
Q3 9:08 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q3 6:31 False Start on the Bengals (Noah Fant), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% CLE +0.4 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:11 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns (Devin Bush Jr.), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 4811 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +29% CLE CIN: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 14:19 The Bengals fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns (Sam Webb), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 654 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +37% CLE CIN: Punt
3 Q3 11:12 The Browns converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% CLE CLE: Field goal
4 Q4 1:29 The Bengals’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% CLE –
5 Q4 0:55 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% CLE CLE: Field goal
6 Q4 0:39 The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +20% CLE CLE: Field goal
7 Q4 0:19 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% CLE CLE: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 A. Szmyt made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 8 of 10 from 45+ before +27% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joseph Ossai (CIN DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kris Jenkins (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Carson Schwesinger (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Maliek Collins (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Quinshon Judkins (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 34% · Bengals 66%

Final margin
Browns by 2
Luck in points
2.5 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Browns 2% · Bengals 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Browns · Bengals

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