luckadjusted

Week 18 2025 · January 3, 2026

Panthers at Buccaneers, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 16–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:18 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Tetairoa McMillan), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

January 3, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3

Luck index +21 Buccaneers about even · −21 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Buccaneers win 8.

  1. 1 CAR 22 TB 10
  2. 2 CAR 13 TB 10
  3. 3 CAR 17 TB 19
  4. 4 CAR 9 TB 13
  5. 5 CAR 20 TB 27
  6. 6 CAR 17 TB 27
  7. 7 CAR 21 TB 33
  8. 8 CAR 10 TB 24
  9. 9 CAR 0 TB 20
  10. 10 CAR 0 TB 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 21% of them, Buccaneers 79%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+1.8%
Panthers by 9–165.3%
Panthers by 1–811.4%
Level after regulation2.7%
Buccaneers by 1–827.2%
Buccaneers by 9–1623.2%
Buccaneers by 17+28.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 9.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 54 yds missed · 62% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 38 yds blocked · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:28 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% CAR TB: Punt
2 Q2 1:56 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% TB CAR: End of half
3 Q3 11:45 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CAR CAR: Missed field goal
4 Q3 5:18 Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Tetairoa McMillan), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 880 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +16% TB TB: Field goal
5 Q4 12:00 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% CAR CAR: Turnover
6 Q4 11:15 The Panthers fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% TB CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:10 The Panthers converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:12 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% TB TB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zyon McCollum (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Nelson (TB LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tershawn Wharton (CAR DT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 86% · Buccaneers 14%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 2
Luck in points
11.4 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 9.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 21% · Buccaneers 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Panthers · Buccaneers

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