luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2025 · January 3, 2026

Panthers at Buccaneers, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 16–14, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:18 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Tetairoa McMillan), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

January 3, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3

Luck index +22 Buccaneers about even · −22 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Buccaneers win 8.

  1. 1 CAR 38 TB 26
  2. 2 CAR 17 TB 14
  3. 3 CAR 27 TB 29
  4. 4 CAR 13 TB 16
  5. 5 CAR 7 TB 13
  6. 6 CAR 21 TB 30
  7. 7 CAR 7 TB 19
  8. 8 CAR 17 TB 31
  9. 9 CAR 20 TB 38
  10. 10 CAR 0 TB 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 22% of them, Buccaneers 78%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+1.5%
Panthers by 9–166.0%
Panthers by 1–812.0%
Level after regulation3.0%
Buccaneers by 1–828.3%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.0%
Buccaneers by 17+27.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.4 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 2, without the luck Panthers by 9.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 54 yds missed · 63% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 38 yds blocked · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 5 for 46 yards, Buccaneers 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Elijah Roberts), 15 yards +3% CAR +1.8 pts
Q1 3:33 Taunting on the Panthers (Michael Jackson), 13 yards +4% TB +1.6 pts
Q1 1:18 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.6 pts
Q2 14:58 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.4 pts
Q2 10:50 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers (Josh Hayes), 10 yards +1% CAR +0.8 pts
Q3 8:14 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.6 pts
Q3 7:27 Illegal Contact on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 5 yards +3% CAR +1.1 pts
Q3 5:18 Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Tetairoa McMillan), 10 yards, wiping out the play +16% TB +4.7 pts
Q3 1:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Nick Scott), 13 yards +1% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 6:52 False Start on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.8 pts
Q4 0:26 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.1 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:53 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TB TB: Punt
2 Q3 11:45 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CAR CAR: Missed field goal
3 Q3 5:18 Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Tetairoa McMillan), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 880 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +16% TB TB: Field goal
4 Q4 12:00 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% CAR CAR: Turnover
5 Q4 11:15 The Panthers fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% TB CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:10 The Panthers converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:12 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +8% TB TB: Punt
8 Q4 0:03 The Panthers fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zyon McCollum (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Nelson (TB LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Tershawn Wharton (CAR DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 93% · Buccaneers 7%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 2
Luck in points
11.4 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 9.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 22% · Buccaneers 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Panthers · Buccaneers

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