One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Chiefs in one-score games

The Chiefs are 2–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 1–9 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 1.8 of those 3. Since 2019: 45–26 in 71 one-score games, 44.4 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Chiefs win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.2 2–1

2025 −4.3 1–9

2024 +2.8 11–0

2023 −0.9 6–5

2022 −0.4 7–3

2021 −0.5 5–3

2020 +3.0 8–1

2019 +0.7 5–4

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	2–1	1.8 of 3	+0.2	6–2
2025	1–9	5.3 of 10	−4.3	6–11
2024	11–0	8.2 of 11	+2.8	15–2
2023	6–5	6.9 of 11	−0.9	11–6
2022	7–3	7.4 of 10	−0.4	14–3
2021	5–3	5.5 of 8	−0.5	12–5
2020	8–1	5.0 of 9	+3.0	14–2
2019	5–4	4.3 of 9	+0.7	12–4

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	vs Colts	W 33–30	53%	+47
Week 4	@ Raiders	W 30–27	50%	+50
Week 8	@ Broncos	L 24–28	76%	−76

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Kansas City Chiefs, every season