One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Chiefs in one-score games

The Chiefs are 1–0 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 1–9 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.5 of those 1. Since 2019: 44–25 in 69 one-score games, 43.6 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Chiefs win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.5 1–0

2025 −3.9 1–9

2024 +2.6 11–0

2023 −1.6 6–5

2022 −0.4 7–3

2021 −0.5 5–3

2020 +3.0 8–1

2019 +0.6 5–4

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–0	0.5 of 1	+0.5	2–0
2025	1–9	4.9 of 10	−3.9	6–11
2024	11–0	8.4 of 11	+2.6	15–2
2023	6–5	7.6 of 11	−1.6	11–6
2022	7–3	7.4 of 10	−0.4	14–3
2021	5–3	5.5 of 8	−0.5	12–5
2020	8–1	5.0 of 9	+3.0	14–2
2019	5–4	4.4 of 9	+0.6	12–4

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	vs Colts	W 33–30	53%	+47

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Kansas City Chiefs, every season