luckadjusted

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Ravens at Chiefs, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Ravens 37–20, but the Ravens played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.9 points to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:27 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 20
Kansas City Chiefs 37

September 28, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −2.5

Luck index +63 Chiefs very lucky · −63 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Chiefs win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 30 KC 6
  2. 2 BAL 44 KC 29
  3. 3 BAL 34 KC 23
  4. 4 BAL 27 KC 20
  5. 5 BAL 33 KC 29
  6. 6 BAL 37 KC 35
  7. 7 BAL 24 KC 26
  8. 8 BAL 24 KC 31
  9. 9 BAL 21 KC 33
  10. 10 BAL 14 KC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 63% of them, Chiefs 37%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+16.8%
Ravens by 9–1620.5%
Ravens by 1–825.0%
Level after regulation2.4%
Chiefs by 1–820.2%
Chiefs by 9–1610.2%
Chiefs by 17+4.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 15.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • H. Butker, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • H. Butker, 56 yds missed · 63% expected
  • T. Loop, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • T. Loop, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • H. Butker, 31 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:02 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +5% BAL KC: Field goal
2 Q1 7:58 The Chiefs converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +6% KC KC: Field goal
3 Q1 4:07 The Ravens converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% BAL BAL: Turnover
4 Q1 2:43 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +6% KC KC: Field goal
5 Q1 2:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Bryan Cook), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2775 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +5% BAL BAL: Turnover
6 Q2 14:20 The Chiefs converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +6% KC KC: Field goal
7 Q2 3:01 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +6% KC BAL: Turnover
8 Q2 1:27 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% KC BAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Danna (KC DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Travis Jones (BAL DL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyle Van Noy (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Travis Jones (BAL DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 0% · Chiefs 100%

Final margin
Chiefs by 17
Luck in points
2.0 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 15.0
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 63% · Chiefs 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Ravens · Chiefs

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