luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Ravens at Chiefs, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Ravens 37–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 57% favorites.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 20
Kansas City Chiefs 37

September 28, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −2.5

Luck index +50 Chiefs lucky · −50 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 5, Chiefs win 5.

  1. 1 BAL 32 KC 9
  2. 2 BAL 37 KC 24
  3. 3 BAL 27 KC 19
  4. 4 BAL 32 KC 27
  5. 5 BAL 24 KC 23
  6. 6 BAL 38 KC 41
  7. 7 BAL 24 KC 30
  8. 8 BAL 24 KC 34
  9. 9 BAL 9 KC 23
  10. 10 BAL 17 KC 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 50% of them, Chiefs 50%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+10.6%
Ravens by 9–1613.3%
Ravens by 1–823.3%
Level after regulation5.5%
Chiefs by 1–822.1%
Chiefs by 9–1614.6%
Chiefs by 17+10.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 17, without the luck Chiefs by 15.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • H. Butker, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Butker, 56 yds missed · 66% expected
  • T. Loop, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • T. Loop, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • H. Butker, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 6 for 56 yards, Chiefs 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:30 Face Mask on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 15 yards +3% KC +0.7 pts
Q1 2:43 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% KC +2.2 pts
Q1 2:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Bryan Cook), 15 yards +5% BAL +1.8 pts
Q2 10:00 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Devontez Walker), 10 yards +2% KC +0.9 pts
Q2 9:07 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q2 8:01 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.4 pts
Q2 7:46 Intentional Grounding on the Ravens (Lamar Jackson), 16 yards +5% KC +1.5 pts
Q3 2:29 Illegal Formation on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +1.1 pts
Q3 2:06 Illegal Forward Pass on the Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), 5 yards 0% BAL +0.5 pts
Q3 0:07 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Charles Omenihu), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +1.0 pts
Q4 5:01 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% BAL +2.2 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:02 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +5% BAL KC: Field goal
2 Q1 7:58 The Chiefs converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +5% KC KC: Field goal
3 Q1 4:07 The Ravens converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% BAL BAL: Turnover
4 Q1 2:43 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +6% KC KC: Field goal
5 Q1 2:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Bryan Cook), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2775 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +5% BAL BAL: Turnover
6 Q2 14:20 The Chiefs converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +5% KC KC: Field goal
7 Q2 7:46 Intentional Grounding on the Ravens (Lamar Jackson), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 6173 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +5% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q2 3:01 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +6% KC BAL: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Danna (KC DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Travis Jones (BAL DL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyle Van Noy (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Travis Jones (BAL DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 0% · Chiefs 100%

Final margin
Chiefs by 17
Luck in points
1.6 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 15.4
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 50% · Chiefs 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Ravens · Chiefs

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