luckadjusted

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Vikings vs Steelers, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Vikings 24–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.3 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:02 left): the Vikings got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 33 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 21
Pittsburgh Steelers 24

September 28, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +25 Steelers about even · −25 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Steelers win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 34 PIT 20
  2. 2 MIN 14 PIT 10
  3. 3 MIN 14 PIT 16
  4. 4 MIN 20 PIT 24
  5. 5 MIN 14 PIT 21
  6. 6 MIN 21 PIT 31
  7. 7 MIN 14 PIT 27
  8. 8 MIN 14 PIT 31
  9. 9 MIN 10 PIT 30
  10. 10 MIN 21 PIT 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 25% of them, Steelers 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+3.5%
Vikings by 9–167.2%
Vikings by 1–812.8%
Level after regulation2.4%
Steelers by 1–823.4%
Steelers by 9–1620.2%
Steelers by 17+30.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 5.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds blocked · 99% expected
  • W. Reichard, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:42 False Start on the Vikings, 6 yardsPre-snap flags +6% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 5:58 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% PIT MIN: Field goal
3 Q2 2:34 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PIT PIT: Missed field goal
4 Q3 6:53 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% MIN MIN: Turnover
5 Q3 5:22 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% PIT MIN: Punt
6 Q4 2:13 The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:02 The Vikings got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +33% MIN MIN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:43 Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Carson Wentz), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3723 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +31% PIT PIT: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joey Porter Jr. (PIT CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jaylen Warren (PIT RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Andrew Van Ginkel (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Aaron Jones (MIN RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Donovan Jackson (MIN OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Cashman (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 20% · Steelers 80%

Final margin
Steelers by 3
Luck in points
2.2 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 25% · Steelers 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Vikings · Steelers

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