Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025
Vikings vs Steelers, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Vikings 24–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:43 left): Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Carson Wentz), 16 yards, worth 31 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 21 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Steelers about even · −14 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 1, Steelers win 9.
- 1 MIN 26 PIT 19
- 2 MIN 10 PIT 12
- 3 MIN 10 PIT 14
- 4 MIN 20 PIT 27
- 5 MIN 10 PIT 21
- 6 MIN 24 PIT 37
- 7 MIN 13 PIT 30
- 8 MIN 14 PIT 34
- 9 MIN 14 PIT 38
- 10 MIN 6 PIT 34
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 14% of them, Steelers 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 1.9% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 7.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 17.9% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 22.3% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 44.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Reichard, 41 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Boswell, 30 yds blocked · 99% expected
- W. Reichard, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Vikings 8 for 82 yards, Steelers 5 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:10 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% PIT +1.3 pts |
| Q2 13:42 | False Start on the Vikings, 6 yards · pre-snap | +6% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 3:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Byron Murphy), 15 yards | +2% PIT +1.8 pts |
| Q2 1:38 | Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Derrick Harmon), 15 yards | +3% MIN +1.8 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Jalen Ramsey), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:11 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (Jay Ward), 10 yards | +1% PIT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:23 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Tavierre Thomas), 10 yards | +1% PIT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:37 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 15 yards | +1% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q4 1:08 | Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:58 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Patrick Queen), 5 yards | +5% MIN +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:54 | Defensive Offside on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:43 | Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Carson Wentz), 16 yards | +31% PIT +1.5 pts |
| Q4 0:14 | Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN 0.0 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 13:42 | False Start on the Vikings, 6 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 2:34 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% PIT | PIT: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q3 6:53 | The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% MIN | MIN: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 2:13 | The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +7% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 1:02 | The Vikings got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throws | +19% MIN | MIN: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 0:58 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Patrick Queen), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 5591 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +5% MIN | MIN: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 0:43 | Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Carson Wentz), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3723 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 | +31% PIT | PIT: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:14 | The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 173rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedDelay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% PIT | MIN: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Joey Porter Jr. (PIT CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Jaylen Warren (PIT RB), out · 0.2 pts
- Andrew Van Ginkel (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
- Aaron Jones (MIN RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Donovan Jackson (MIN OL), out · 0.3 pts
- Blake Cashman (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 6% · Steelers 94%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.9 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Steelers by 7.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 14% · Steelers 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Vikings · 
Steelers
More from Week 4 2025
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 23–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Panthers at Patriots NE 42–13 · replay 74% for the winner
- Browns at Lions DET 34–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chargers at Giants NYG 21–18 · replay 18% for the winner
- Saints at Bills BUF 31–19 · replay 91% for the winner
- Eagles at Buccaneers PHI 31–25 · replay 37% for the winner
- Titans at Texans HOU 26–0 · replay 90% for the winner
- Commanders at Falcons ATL 34–27 · replay 78% for the winner
- Colts at Rams LA 27–20 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jaguars at 49ers JAX 26–21 · replay 48% for the winner
- Ravens at Chiefs KC 37–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Bears at Raiders CHI 25–24 · replay 18% for the winner
- Packers at Cowboys DAL 40–40 · replay 47% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 27–21 · replay 29% for the winner
- Bengals at Broncos DEN 28–3 · replay 82% for the winner