luckadjusted

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Titans at Texans, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Titans 26–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 8 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.1 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:44 left): J. Slye missed 41-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 0
Houston Texans 26

September 28, 2025 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −7.5

Luck index +17 Texans about even · −17 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 2, Texans win 8.

  1. 1 TEN 13 HOU 3
  2. 2 TEN 20 HOU 17
  3. 3 TEN 10 HOU 12
  4. 4 TEN 13 HOU 16
  5. 5 TEN 6 HOU 13
  6. 6 TEN 13 HOU 23
  7. 7 TEN 10 HOU 23
  8. 8 TEN 3 HOU 19
  9. 9 TEN 3 HOU 23
  10. 10 TEN 7 HOU 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 17% of them, Texans 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+1.3%
Titans by 9–164.2%
Titans by 1–810.0%
Level after regulation2.2%
Texans by 1–830.0%
Texans by 9–1622.8%
Texans by 17+29.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 26. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 17.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 41 yds missed · 87% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 47 yds made · 81% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Slye, 43 yds missed · 84% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 54 yds missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:52 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% HOU TEN: Missed field goal
2 Q1 11:44 J. Slye missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +10% HOU TEN: Punt
3 Q2 0:39 E. Ayomanor dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 14 catchable balls before this +6% HOU TEN: Missed field goal
4 Q2 0:21 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
5 Q3 10:46 K. Fairbairn missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 51 of 71 from 45+ before +8% TEN HOU: Touchdown
6 Q3 5:44 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% TEN TEN: Turnover
7 Q3 2:03 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedW. Marks dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 4 catchable balls before this +9% TEN HOU: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:57 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kurt Hinish (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cade Stover (HOU TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • JC Latham (TEN T), out · 0.7 pts
  • John Ojukwu (TEN T), out · 0.4 pts
  • John Ojukwu (TEN OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • T'Vondre Sweat (TEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tyjae Spears (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Will Levis (TEN QB), out (IR), replaced by c.ward · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 0% · Texans 100%

Final margin
Texans by 26
Luck in points
8.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 17.4
Replay with same day's form
Titans 17% · Texans 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Titans · Texans

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