luckadjusted

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Packers at Cowboys, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys and the Packers tied 40–40. Replayed with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 0:01 left): B. McManus made 34-yard field goal, worth 28 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final (OT)

Green Bay Packers 40
Dallas Cowboys 40

September 28, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Packers −7

Luck index +4 Cowboys about even · −4 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 5, Cowboys win 5.

  1. 1 GB 41 DAL 20
  2. 2 GB 41 DAL 27
  3. 3 GB 36 DAL 27
  4. 4 GB 40 DAL 35
  5. 5 GB 24 DAL 22
  6. 6 GB 14 DAL 16
  7. 7 GB 26 DAL 30
  8. 8 GB 25 DAL 33
  9. 9 GB 21 DAL 34
  10. 10 GB 16 DAL 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 54% of them, Cowboys 46%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tie.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+11.4%
Packers by 9–1614.4%
Packers by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation5.3%
Cowboys by 1–821.7%
Cowboys by 9–1613.8%
Cowboys by 17+9.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was even. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 6.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 53 yds made · 71% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • B. McManus, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:44 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +16% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:38 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 1344 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +16% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q4 1:49 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +22% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q4 0:04 B. McManus made 53-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 63 of 90 from 45+ before +14% GB GB: Field goal
5 QOT 7:57 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +23% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 QOT 3:50 The Packers converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +20% GB GB: Field goal
7 QOT 0:06 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +18% GB GB: Field goal
8 QOT 0:01 B. McManus made 34-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +28% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • Cooper Beebe (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Booker (DAL G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zach Tom (GB T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jayden Reed (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Aaron Banks (GB G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Belton (GB T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 15% · Cowboys 85%

Final margin
even
Luck in points
6.8 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Packers 54% · Cowboys 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Packers · Cowboys

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