luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Packers at Cowboys, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys and the Packers tied 40–40. Replayed with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 3:50 left): the Packers converted 4th & 6, worth 20 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final (OT)

Green Bay Packers 40
Dallas Cowboys 40

September 28, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Packers −7

Luck index +3 Cowboys about even · −3 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 5, Cowboys win 5.

  1. 1 GB 47 DAL 24
  2. 2 GB 17 DAL 3
  3. 3 GB 34 DAL 24
  4. 4 GB 20 DAL 14
  5. 5 GB 51 DAL 49
  6. 6 GB 21 DAL 23
  7. 7 GB 30 DAL 34
  8. 8 GB 13 DAL 21
  9. 9 GB 30 DAL 42
  10. 10 GB 19 DAL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 53% of them, Cowboys 47%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tie.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+11.4%
Packers by 9–1614.0%
Packers by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation6.9%
Cowboys by 1–822.2%
Cowboys by 9–1613.2%
Cowboys by 17+9.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 points to the Packers: the final margin was even, without the luck Cowboys by 4.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 53 yds made · 72% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • B. McManus, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 7 for 53 yards, Cowboys 11 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:08 False Start on the Packers, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q1 5:49 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q1 4:23 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q1 1:31 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +1.0 pts
Q2 14:42 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +14% GB +5.0 pts
Q2 12:35 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +4% DAL +1.5 pts
Q2 10:37 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Marist Liufau), 10 yards +1% GB +0.8 pts
Q2 9:54 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% GB +2.9 pts
Q2 7:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Donovan Ezeiruaku), 15 yards +2% GB +1.8 pts
Q2 0:21 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.1 pts
Q3 13:46 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.6 pts
Q3 10:38 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 15 yards, wiping out the play +16% GB +1.6 pts
Q3 8:49 False Start on the Packers, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.6 pts
Q3 1:26 False Start on the Cowboys (Luke Schoonmaker), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.6 pts
Q4 14:16 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Reddy Steward), 5 yards +4% GB +0.9 pts
Q4 7:06 Face Mask on the Packers (Karl Brooks), 15 yards +12% DAL +1.8 pts
Q4 2:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Marist Liufau), 15 yards +6% GB +1.1 pts
OT 10:00 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (James Houston), 10 yards +6% GB +0.9 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:42 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +14% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:38 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 1344 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +16% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q4 7:06 Face Mask on the Packers (Karl Brooks), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1282 snaps before, position avg 1 per 373 +12% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 1:49 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +16% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:04 B. McManus made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 63 of 90 from 45+ before +14% GB GB: Field goal
6 OT 7:57 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +19% DAL DAL: Field goal
7 OT 3:50 The Packers converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +20% GB GB: Field goal
8 OT 0:06 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +18% GB GB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • Cooper Beebe (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Booker (DAL G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zach Tom (GB T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jayden Reed (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Aaron Banks (GB G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Belton (GB T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 23% · Cowboys 77%

Final margin
even
Luck in points
4.2 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Packers 53% · Cowboys 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Packers · Cowboys

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