luckadjusted

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Eagles at Buccaneers, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Buccaneers 31–25, but the Buccaneers played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 3.0 points to the Eagles.

The Eagles won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:59 left): Blocked punt by the Eagles, worth 17 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25

September 28, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −3.5

Luck index +75 Eagles very lucky · −75 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 2, Buccaneers win 8.

  1. 1 PHI 30 TB 17
  2. 2 PHI 27 TB 24
  3. 3 PHI 17 TB 20
  4. 4 PHI 20 TB 24
  5. 5 PHI 17 TB 25
  6. 6 PHI 20 TB 31
  7. 7 PHI 19 TB 33
  8. 8 PHI 19 TB 36
  9. 9 PHI 6 TB 27
  10. 10 PHI 13 TB 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Eagles won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%.

37 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.14 worse by 0.14
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed −0.09 +0.04 better by 0.13
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained −0.09 +0.17 worse by 0.27
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.08 better by 0.09

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 25% of them, Buccaneers 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+2.7%
Eagles by 9–167.3%
Eagles by 1–812.8%
Level after regulation2.3%
Buccaneers by 1–824.1%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.5%
Buccaneers by 17+30.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 6.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Elliott, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 65 yds made · 53% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 58 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:59 Blocked punt by the EaglesSpecial teams +17% PHI PHI: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 4:27 The Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsIllegal Blindside Block on the Eagles (Jalyx Hunt), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 776 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +6% TB TB: Field goal
3 Q4 13:41 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Payne Durham), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 939 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +6% PHI PHI: Punt
4 Q4 10:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1167 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% TB TB: Turnover
5 Q4 8:40 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% TB TB: Turnover
6 Q4 7:57 The Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% PHI TB: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 4:47 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% PHI TB: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:02 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Izien (TB SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (PHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nolan Smith (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 90% · Buccaneers 10%

Final margin
Eagles by 6
Luck in points
0.4 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 25% · Buccaneers 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Eagles · Buccaneers

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