luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Eagles at Buccaneers, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Buccaneers 31–25, but the replays lean toward the Buccaneers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:59 left): Blocked punt by the Eagles, worth 17 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25

September 28, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −3.5

Luck index +63 Eagles very lucky · −63 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 4, Buccaneers win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 43 TB 23
  2. 2 PHI 20 TB 10
  3. 3 PHI 37 TB 31
  4. 4 PHI 24 TB 22
  5. 5 PHI 20 TB 22
  6. 6 PHI 20 TB 27
  7. 7 PHI 16 TB 26
  8. 8 PHI 13 TB 27
  9. 9 PHI 22 TB 40
  10. 10 PHI 10 TB 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 37% of them, Buccaneers 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+6.4%
Eagles by 9–1610.8%
Eagles by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation2.7%
Buccaneers by 1–821.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.4%
Buccaneers by 17+19.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 6, without the luck Eagles by 5.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Elliott, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 65 yds made · 33% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 58 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 8 for 83 yards, Buccaneers 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:04 Taunting on the Eagles (Cooper DeJean), 15 yards +2% TB +1.8 pts
Q1 4:27 Illegal Blindside Block on the Eagles (Jalyx Hunt), 15 yards +3% TB +1.8 pts
Q2 9:50 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Parry Nickerson), 10 yards +2% TB +0.8 pts
Q2 6:10 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Anthony Nelson), 10 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 0:28 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 15 yards +1% TB +0.7 pts
Q3 3:51 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Devin Culp), 10 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 1:21 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers (YaYa Diaby), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 14:52 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Joshua Uche), 15 yards +3% TB +1.3 pts
Q4 13:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Patrick Johnson), 3 yards +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 13:41 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Payne Durham), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% PHI +2.2 pts
Q4 10:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 5 yards +5% TB +1.4 pts
Q4 2:01 False Start on the Buccaneers (Emeka Egbuka), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 0:06 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.1 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:59 Blocked punt by the EaglesSpecial teams +17% PHI PHI: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 4:27 The Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsIllegal Blindside Block on the Eagles (Jalyx Hunt), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 776 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +6% TB TB: Field goal
3 Q4 13:41 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Payne Durham), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 939 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +6% PHI PHI: Punt
4 Q4 10:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1167 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% TB TB: Turnover
5 Q4 8:40 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% TB TB: Turnover
6 Q4 7:57 The Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +6% PHI TB: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 4:47 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +5% PHI TB: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:02 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Izien (TB SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (PHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nolan Smith (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 86% · Buccaneers 14%

Final margin
Eagles by 6
Luck in points
0.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 37% · Buccaneers 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Eagles · Buccaneers

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