luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 29, 2025

Jets at Dolphins, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Jets 27–21, but the replays lean toward the Jets: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:05 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

New York Jets 21
Miami Dolphins 27

September 29, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −2.5

Luck index +71 Dolphins very lucky · −71 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 7, Dolphins win 3.

  1. 1 NYJ 35 MIA 13
  2. 2 NYJ 30 MIA 13
  3. 3 NYJ 34 MIA 21
  4. 4 NYJ 24 MIA 14
  5. 5 NYJ 16 MIA 9
  6. 6 NYJ 10 MIA 6
  7. 7 NYJ 30 MIA 28
  8. 8 NYJ 27 MIA 29
  9. 9 NYJ 10 MIA 16
  10. 10 NYJ 17 MIA 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 71% of them, Dolphins 29%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+20.2%
Jets by 9–1622.0%
Jets by 1–827.8%
Level after regulation4.9%
Dolphins by 1–815.2%
Dolphins by 9–167.0%
Dolphins by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.1 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 6, without the luck Jets by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 47 yds made · 71% expected
  • N. Folk, 58 yds made · 60% expected
  • N. Folk, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • R. Patterson, 36 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 13 for 101 yards, Dolphins 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:51 Low Block on the Jets (Mark Robinson), 13 yards +2% MIA +1.0 pts
Q1 4:13 Delay of Game on the Jets, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q1 3:54 Illegal Use of Hands on the Dolphins (Jaelan Phillips), 5 yards +1% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q1 1:05 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 6:36 Illegal Shift on the Jets, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.6 pts
Q2 5:58 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 5:36 False Start on the Jets (Mason Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.7 pts
Q2 2:49 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% NYJ +1.9 pts
Q2 0:46 False Start on the Jets (Allen Lazard), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.2 pts
Q2 0:10 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins (Dante Trader), 5 yards +1% NYJ +0.2 pts
Q3 11:33 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins (Matt Judon), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.2 pts
Q3 9:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 10 yards +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q3 7:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Francisco Mauigoa), 15 yards +3% MIA +1.8 pts
Q3 2:35 Encroachment on the Jets (Jay Tufele), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q3 0:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% MIA +2.5 pts
Q4 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 15 yards +3% MIA +1.4 pts
Q4 9:01 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 8:17 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +3% MIA +1.4 pts
Q4 0:02 Illegal Forward Pass on the Jets (Jeremy Ruckert), 0 yards 0% MIA 0.0 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% MIA MIA: Field goal
2 Q1 12:14 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q1 10:59 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +5% NYJ MIA: Field goal
4 Q1 3:06 The Jets fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MIA NYJ: Turnover
5 Q2 14:21 The Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:55 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q2 9:26 The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 3097 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +10% MIA MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kader Kohou (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jason Sanders (MIA K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Quincy Williams (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Johnson (NYJ WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 80% · Dolphins 20%

Final margin
Dolphins by 6
Luck in points
13.1 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 7.1
Replay with same day's form
Jets 71% · Dolphins 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Jets · Dolphins

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