luckadjusted

Week 4 2025 · September 29, 2025

Jets at Dolphins, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Jets 27–21, but the Jets played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 7.9 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:36 left): the Jets converted 4th & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 21
Miami Dolphins 27

September 29, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −2.5

Luck index +69 Dolphins very lucky · −69 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 7, Dolphins win 3.

  1. 1 NYJ 24 MIA 0
  2. 2 NYJ 28 MIA 10
  3. 3 NYJ 24 MIA 10
  4. 4 NYJ 20 MIA 9
  5. 5 NYJ 21 MIA 14
  6. 6 NYJ 24 MIA 20
  7. 7 NYJ 26 MIA 24
  8. 8 NYJ 14 MIA 17
  9. 9 NYJ 20 MIA 27
  10. 10 NYJ 7 MIA 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 69% of them, Dolphins 31%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+20.4%
Jets by 9–1620.9%
Jets by 1–827.2%
Level after regulation4.9%
Dolphins by 1–815.8%
Dolphins by 9–167.8%
Dolphins by 17+3.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 8.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 47 yds made · 71% expected
  • N. Folk, 58 yds made · 57% expected
  • N. Folk, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • R. Patterson, 36 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:14 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% MIA MIA: Field goal
2 Q1 10:59 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% NYJ MIA: Field goal
3 Q1 3:06 The Jets fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MIA NYJ: Turnover
4 Q2 12:55 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:26 The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:23 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe Jets fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MIA NYJ: Field goal
7 Q3 9:36 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 3097 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +10% MIA MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kader Kohou (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jason Sanders (MIA K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Quincy Williams (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Johnson (NYJ WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 83% · Dolphins 17%

Final margin
Dolphins by 6
Luck in points
14.0 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
Jets 69% · Dolphins 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Jets · Dolphins

More from Week 4 2025