2025 season · final
Tennessee Titans, 2025: game by game
The Titans went 3–14 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 2.2 wins. Luck added 0.8: the 14th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.
Every game
How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Broncos | L 12–20 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 2 | vs Rams | L 19–33 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 3 | vs Colts | L 20–41 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 4 | @ Texans | L 0–26 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 5 | @ Cardinals | W 22–21 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 6 | @ Raiders | L 10–20 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 7 | vs Patriots | L 13–31 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 8 | @ Colts | L 14–38 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 9 | vs Chargers | L 20–27 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 11 | vs Texans | L 13–16 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 12 | vs Seahawks | L 24–30 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 13 | vs Jaguars | L 3–25 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 14 | @ Browns | W 31–29 | 30% | +70 |
| Week 15 | @ 49ers | L 24–37 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 16 | vs Chiefs | W 26–9 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 17 | vs Saints | L 26–34 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 18 | @ Jaguars | L 7–41 | 0% | 0 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.25 | +7.1 |
| Kicks | +0.23 | −5.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.20 | −8.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.22 | −6.4 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.23 | −10.7 |
| Drops | −0.68 | −29.0 |