Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025
Titans at Cardinals, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Cardinals 22–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Titans win 5 of 10.
Before kickoff the Cardinals were 71% favorites.
Final
 Tennessee Titans | 22 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Titans lucky · −49 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 5, Cardinals win 5.
- 1 TEN 36 ARI 14
- 2 TEN 37 ARI 23
- 3 TEN 30 ARI 20
- 4 TEN 30 ARI 24
- 5 TEN 23 ARI 21
- 6 TEN 15 ARI 17
- 7 TEN 14 ARI 20
- 8 TEN 13 ARI 23
- 9 TEN 20 ARI 34
- 10 TEN 8 ARI 31
Your call
Did the Titans earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 51% of them, Cardinals 49%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 11.7% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 14.8% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 21.1% |
| Level after regulation | 5.5% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 20.2% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 15.6% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 11.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 44 yds made · 84% expected
- J. Slye, 51 yds made · 71% expected
- J. Slye, 29 yds made · 96% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Titans 6 for 35 yards, Cardinals 8 for 47 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:15 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 11:11 | Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jihad Ward), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARI 0.0 pts |
| Q1 0:39 | Offensive Holding on the Titans (Kendell Brooks), 10 yards | +1% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:13 | Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.2 pts |
| Q2 5:05 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans (Marcus Harris), 10 yards | +1% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:48 | Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Kei'Trel Clark), 5 yards | +2% TEN +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% TEN +3.4 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 12 yards | +2% TEN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 12:51 | Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.5 pts |
| Q3 6:46 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:38 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards | 0% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:16 | Illegal Contact on the Titans (Roger McCreary), 5 yards | 0% ARI +1.3 pts |
| Q4 10:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Mack Wilson), 0 yards | 0% TEN 0.0 pts |
| Q4 10:26 | Illegal Formation on the Titans (Julius Chestnut), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.5 pts |
Titans penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:46 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +3% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +4% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 8:34 | J. Slye made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 49 of 75 from 45+ before | +3% ARI | TEN: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 5:53 | The Cardinals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throws | +3% ARI | ARI: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 2:00 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% TEN | TEN: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 1:47 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 5680 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 | +6% TEN | ARI: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:19 | The Titans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +4% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | J. Slye made a 29-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him | +4% TEN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Sean Murphy-Bunting (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Evan Brown (ARI C), out · 0.4 pts
- Evan Brown (ARI OL), out · 0.4 pts
- Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Max Melton (ARI CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Christian Jones (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Darius Robinson (ARI DL), out · 0.2 pts
- L.J. Collier (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Darius Robinson (ARI DT), out · 0.1 pts
- JC Latham (TEN T), out · 0.7 pts
- John Ojukwu (TEN T), out · 0.4 pts
- John Ojukwu (TEN OL), out · 0.3 pts
- Mike Brown (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- T'Vondre Sweat (TEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Will Levis (TEN QB), out (IR), replaced by c.ward · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 67% · Cardinals 33%
- Final margin
- Titans by 1
- Luck in points
- 1.6 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 51% · Cardinals 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Titans · 
Cardinals
More from Week 5 2025
- 49ers at Rams SF 26–23 · replay 26% for the winner
- Vikings vs Browns MIN 21–17 · replay 52% for the winner
- Cowboys at Jets DAL 37–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Broncos at Eagles DEN 21–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Texans at Ravens HOU 44–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- Raiders at Colts IND 40–6 · replay 86% for the winner
- Dolphins at Panthers CAR 27–24 · replay 62% for the winner
- Giants at Saints NO 26–14 · replay 85% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Seahawks TB 38–35 · replay 53% for the winner
- Lions at Bengals DET 37–24 · replay 99% for the winner
- Commanders at Chargers WAS 27–10 · replay 90% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills NE 23–20 · replay 54% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jaguars JAX 31–28 · replay 31% for the winner