luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Broncos at Eagles, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Eagles 21–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.1 points to the Eagles.

An off day for the Eagles: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:23 left): Illegal Shift on the Eagles (Saquon Barkley), 4 yards, wiping out the play, worth 30 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 21
Philadelphia Eagles 17

October 5, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −3.5

Luck index +10 Broncos about even · −10 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 9, Eagles win 1.

  1. 1 DEN 37 PHI 6
  2. 2 DEN 32 PHI 9
  3. 3 DEN 23 PHI 3
  4. 4 DEN 36 PHI 20
  5. 5 DEN 30 PHI 17
  6. 6 DEN 27 PHI 17
  7. 7 DEN 24 PHI 17
  8. 8 DEN 23 PHI 19
  9. 9 DEN 21 PHI 19
  10. 10 DEN 13 PHI 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Eagles

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

49 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Broncos offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.11 worse by 0.04
Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed +0.01 +0.04 better by 0.03
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.01 +0.13 worse by 0.12
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.03 worse by 0.04

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 90% of them, Eagles 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+48.4%
Broncos by 9–1623.5%
Broncos by 1–816.7%
Level after regulation1.6%
Eagles by 1–86.5%
Eagles by 9–162.8%
Eagles by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 2.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 55 yds made · 61% expected
  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • W. Lutz, 36 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:38 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% PHI DEN: Punt
2 Q2 8:12 The Eagles converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +15% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q4 8:17 The Broncos converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +16% DEN DEN: Touchdown
4 Q4 7:05 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% DEN DEN: Field goal
5 Q4 5:23 Illegal Shift on the Eagles (Saquon Barkley), 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 4214 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 +30% DEN DEN: Field goal
6 Q4 3:28 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% DEN DEN: Field goal
7 Q4 2:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Zack Baun), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3545 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +10% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 Q4 1:14 W. Lutz made 36-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for himFalse Start on the Broncos, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% PHI DEN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nolan Smith (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (PHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 67% · Eagles 33%

Final margin
Broncos by 4
Luck in points
1.6 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 90% · Eagles 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Broncos · Eagles

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