Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025
Broncos at Eagles, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
The Broncos beat the Eagles 21–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Eagles: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Eagles were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:23 left): Illegal Shift on the Eagles (Saquon Barkley), 4 yards, wiping out the play, worth 29 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Final
 Denver Broncos | 21 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Broncos about even · −18 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Broncos win 8, Eagles win 2.
- 1 DEN 37 PHI 6
- 2 DEN 33 PHI 10
- 3 DEN 31 PHI 13
- 4 DEN 27 PHI 13
- 5 DEN 24 PHI 13
- 6 DEN 25 PHI 17
- 7 DEN 30 PHI 24
- 8 DEN 24 PHI 22
- 9 DEN 7 PHI 10
- 10 DEN 24 PHI 37
Your call
Did the Broncos earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Eagles
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.11 | worse by 0.04 |
| Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.04 | better by 0.03 |
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | +0.01 | +0.13 | worse by 0.12 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.03 | worse by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Broncos win 82% of them, Eagles 18%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Broncos by 17+ | 34.5% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 21.7% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 25.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 10.8% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 4.7% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 2.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Lutz, 55 yds made · 63% expected
- J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 96% expected
- W. Lutz, 36 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Broncos 12 for 121 yards, Eagles 9 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:51 | Encroachment on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 5 yards · pre-snap | +9% DEN +2.0 pts |
| Q2 13:06 | Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PHI +1.2 pts |
| Q2 8:32 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.3 pts |
| Q2 7:29 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 24 yards | +4% PHI +2.0 pts |
| Q2 7:20 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos (JL Skinner), 10 yards | +2% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:02 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:49 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 11 yards | +1% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:34 | False Start on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 13:23 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Trent Sherfield), 10 yards | +1% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:21 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q3 8:21 | Intentional Grounding on the Broncos (Bo Nix), 13 yards | +1% PHI +1.2 pts |
| Q3 3:43 | False Start on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:20 | Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Quinyon Mitchell), 2 yards | +1% DEN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 13:06 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% DEN +1.7 pts |
| Q4 8:40 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Pat Bryant), 10 yards | +7% PHI +1.9 pts |
| Q4 7:05 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +11% DEN +1.5 pts |
| Q4 5:23 | Illegal Shift on the Eagles (Saquon Barkley), 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +29% DEN +3.2 pts |
| Q4 2:39 | Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:27 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Zack Baun), 14 yards | +10% DEN +1.7 pts |
| Q4 1:14 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:21 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (JL Skinner), 18 yards | +9% PHI +0.5 pts |
Broncos penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:51 | Encroachment on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 14 flags in 1980 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323 | +9% DEN | DEN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q4 8:17 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +11% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 7:36 | The Broncos’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +9% DEN | DEN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 7:05 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% DEN | DEN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 5:23 | Illegal Shift on the Eagles (Saquon Barkley), 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 4214 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 | +29% DEN | DEN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 3:28 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +11% DEN | DEN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 2:27 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Zack Baun), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3545 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +10% DEN | DEN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:14 | W. Lutz made a 36-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for himFalse Start on the Broncos, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% PHI | DEN: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Nolan Smith (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Charley Hughlett (PHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Broncos 65% · Eagles 35%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 4
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Broncos 82% · Eagles 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Broncos · 
Eagles
More from Week 5 2025
- 49ers at Rams SF 26–23 · replay 26% for the winner
- Vikings vs Browns MIN 21–17 · replay 52% for the winner
- Cowboys at Jets DAL 37–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Texans at Ravens HOU 44–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- Raiders at Colts IND 40–6 · replay 86% for the winner
- Dolphins at Panthers CAR 27–24 · replay 62% for the winner
- Giants at Saints NO 26–14 · replay 85% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Seahawks TB 38–35 · replay 53% for the winner
- Titans at Cardinals TEN 22–21 · replay 51% for the winner
- Lions at Bengals DET 37–24 · replay 99% for the winner
- Commanders at Chargers WAS 27–10 · replay 90% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills NE 23–20 · replay 54% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jaguars JAX 31–28 · replay 31% for the winner