luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Patriots at Bills, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Bills 23–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Bills were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:20 left): A. Borregales made a 52-yard field goal, worth 23 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 23
Buffalo Bills 20

October 5, 2025 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −7.5

Luck index +46 Patriots lucky · −46 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 5, Bills win 5.

  1. 1 NE 38 BUF 14
  2. 2 NE 31 BUF 16
  3. 3 NE 31 BUF 21
  4. 4 NE 33 BUF 27
  5. 5 NE 30 BUF 27
  6. 6 NE 26 BUF 28
  7. 7 NE 23 BUF 27
  8. 8 NE 24 BUF 33
  9. 9 NE 28 BUF 41
  10. 10 NE 14 BUF 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 54% of them, Bills 46%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+11.1%
Patriots by 9–1614.6%
Patriots by 1–823.5%
Level after regulation5.2%
Bills by 1–822.4%
Bills by 9–1613.1%
Bills by 17+10.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 3, without the luck Bills by 2.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Prater, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Borregales, 19 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Prater, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • A. Borregales, 52 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 8 for 93 yards, Bills 11 for 90 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:18 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 7 yards +1% NE +1.0 pts
Q1 6:55 Illegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% NE +1.3 pts
Q1 6:24 Illegal Formation on the Bills (Shaq Thompson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.5 pts
Q1 2:17 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Dalton Kincaid), 7 yards, wiping out the play +3% NE +1.3 pts
Q1 0:10 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NE +0.7 pts
Q2 5:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +4% NE +1.4 pts
Q2 1:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Terrel Bernard), 15 yards +7% NE +1.8 pts
Q2 1:18 Face Mask on the Patriots (Kayshon Boutte), 15 yards +7% BUF +1.1 pts
Q2 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 11 yards +8% NE +0.9 pts
Q2 0:10 False Start on the Patriots (Kayshon Boutte), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.6 pts
Q3 11:36 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Harold Landry), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.6 pts
Q3 7:58 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Christian Benford), 5 yards +2% NE +0.4 pts
Q3 5:43 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Brenden Schooler), 15 yards +8% BUF +1.2 pts
Q3 3:22 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Khalil Shakir), 10 yards +9% NE +1.6 pts
Q4 11:18 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Cory Durden), 15 yards +3% BUF +0.9 pts
Q4 11:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Joshua Farmer), 15 yards +9% BUF +1.8 pts
Q4 6:22 False Start on the Patriots, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q4 5:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Jack Gibbens), 19 yards +8% BUF +1.7 pts
Q4 0:15 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Joe Andreessen), 10 yards +12% NE +0.9 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 5:43 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Brenden Schooler), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1252 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +8% BUF BUF: Turnover
2 Q3 3:22 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Khalil Shakir), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2055 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +9% NE NE: Touchdown
3 Q4 11:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Joshua Farmer), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 57 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323 +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q4 6:22 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedFalse Start on the Patriots, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +12% BUF NE: Punt
5 Q4 4:47 The Bills converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +11% BUF BUF: Field goal
6 Q4 1:07 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +9% BUF NE: Field goal
7 Q4 0:20 A. Borregales made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +23% NE –
8 Q4 0:15 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Joe Andreessen), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 511 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +12% NE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Bass (BUF K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tylan Grable (BUF T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Johnston (BUF P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • T.J. Sanders (BUF DT), out · 0.1 pts
  • Layden Robinson (NE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • K'Lavon Chaisson (NE LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 36% · Bills 64%

Final margin
Patriots by 3
Luck in points
5.8 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 54% · Bills 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Patriots · Bills

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