luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 2, 2025

49ers at Rams, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Rams 26–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the 49ers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 5.7 points to the 49ers.

Before kickoff the Rams were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 3:41 left): the Rams were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 78 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final (OT)

San Francisco 49ers 26
Los Angeles Rams 23

October 2, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −8.5

Luck index +52 49ers lucky · −52 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 5, Rams win 5.

  1. 1 SF 41 LA 17
  2. 2 SF 35 LA 21
  3. 3 SF 27 LA 17
  4. 4 SF 26 LA 21
  5. 5 SF 23 LA 21
  6. 6 SF 27 LA 30
  7. 7 SF 26 LA 31
  8. 8 SF 23 LA 30
  9. 9 SF 26 LA 38
  10. 10 SF 12 LA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 48% of them, Rams 52%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+9.8%
49ers by 9–1614.9%
49ers by 1–821.6%
Level after regulation5.4%
Rams by 1–823.4%
Rams by 9–1613.9%
Rams by 17+10.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 1.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Karty, 53 yds missed · 72% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 59 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Karty, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 5:14 The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% SF SF: Field goal
2 Q4 2:57 E. Pineiro made 59-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 30 of 37 from 45+ before +19% SF SF: Punt
3 Q4 1:07 The Rams fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +29% SF LA: Field goal
4 Q4 0:53 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Tre Brown), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 1360 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +14% SF SF: End of game
5 Q4 0:25 The Rams converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +12% LA LA: Field goal
6 Q4 0:06 J. Karty made 48-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 11 of 14 from 45+ before +18% LA LA: Turnover on downs
7 QOT 5:55 E. Pineiro made 41-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +30% LA –
8 QOT 3:41 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +78% SF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Beaux Limmer (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brock Purdy (SF QB), out, replaced by m.jones · 8.1 pts
  • George Kittle (SF TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jauan Jennings (SF WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Malik Mustapha (SF FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Taylor (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ben Bartch (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 6% · Rams 94%

Final margin
49ers by 3
Luck in points
4.0 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
49ers 48% · Rams 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 49ers · Rams

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