Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025
Raiders at Colts, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
The Colts beat the Raiders 40–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Colts were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:38 left): Blocked punt by the Colts, worth 9 points of win probability to the Colts.
Final
 Las Vegas Raiders | 6 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Colts about even · −14 Raiders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 1, Colts win 9.
- 1 LV 20 IND 14
- 2 LV 21 IND 23
- 3 LV 20 IND 24
- 4 LV 10 IND 17
- 5 LV 17 IND 27
- 6 LV 14 IND 27
- 7 LV 10 IND 24
- 8 LV 3 IND 20
- 9 LV 17 IND 37
- 10 LV 16 IND 42
Your call
Did the Colts earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 14% of them, Colts 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 34.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 9.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 28.5% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 23.7% |
| Colts by 17+ | 33.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
- D. Carlson, 57 yds missed · 68% expected
- D. Carlson, 37 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Raiders 6 for 65 yards, Colts 8 for 71 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:21 | Offensive Holding on the Colts (Joe Bachie), 10 yards | +1% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q2 13:01 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards | +7% LV +1.9 pts |
| Q2 10:47 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards | +4% IND +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:53 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Devin White), 5 yards | +2% IND +1.3 pts |
| Q2 7:56 | Roughing the Kicker on the Raiders (Tristin McCollum), 15 yards | +4% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q2 7:56 | Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Colts (Rigoberto Sanchez), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV 0.0 pts |
| Q2 6:39 | Tripping on the Colts (Joe Bachie), 15 yards | +3% LV +1.8 pts |
| Q2 1:36 | Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Adam Butler), 6 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Kyu Blu Kelly), 19 yards | +3% IND +1.8 pts |
| Q3 6:54 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Tyler Warren), 10 yards | 0% LV 0.0 pts |
| Q3 2:22 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards | 0% IND +1.0 pts |
| Q3 0:40 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Mekhi Blackmon), 15 yards | 0% LV +2.4 pts |
| Q4 13:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 6 yards | 0% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q4 6:52 | Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV +0.3 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:14 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 14:21 | The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +6% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 13:01 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% LV | LV: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 12:30 | The Colts converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +7% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 9:38 | Blocked punt by the ColtsSpecial teams | +9% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 7:14 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +4% LV | LV: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 4:46 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +6% LV | LV: Turnover |
| 8 | Q2 3:59 | The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +6% IND | LV: Missed field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Alec Pierce (IND WR), out · 0.9 pts
- Jaylon Jones (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Brock Bowers (LV TE), out · 1.0 pts
- Kolton Miller (LV T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Germaine Pratt (LV LB), out · 0.5 pts
- Eric Stokes (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Michael Mayer (LV TE), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 0% · Colts 100%
- Final margin
- Colts by 34
- Luck in points
- 7.8 for the Colts
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colts by 26.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 14% · Colts 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Raiders · 
Colts
More from Week 5 2025
- 49ers at Rams SF 26–23 · replay 26% for the winner
- Vikings vs Browns MIN 21–17 · replay 52% for the winner
- Cowboys at Jets DAL 37–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Broncos at Eagles DEN 21–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Texans at Ravens HOU 44–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- Dolphins at Panthers CAR 27–24 · replay 62% for the winner
- Giants at Saints NO 26–14 · replay 85% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Seahawks TB 38–35 · replay 53% for the winner
- Titans at Cardinals TEN 22–21 · replay 51% for the winner
- Lions at Bengals DET 37–24 · replay 99% for the winner
- Commanders at Chargers WAS 27–10 · replay 90% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills NE 23–20 · replay 54% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jaguars JAX 31–28 · replay 31% for the winner