Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025
Colts at Titans, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
The Colts beat the Titans 41–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Titans.
Before kickoff the Colts were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:20 left): Return touchdown by the Colts, worth 23 points of win probability to the Colts.
Final
 Indianapolis Colts | 41 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Colts about even · −6 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colts win 9, Titans win 1.
- 1 IND 45 TEN 14
- 2 IND 31 TEN 7
- 3 IND 30 TEN 10
- 4 IND 31 TEN 14
- 5 IND 27 TEN 13
- 6 IND 34 TEN 24
- 7 IND 19 TEN 10
- 8 IND 13 TEN 7
- 9 IND 36 TEN 33
- 10 IND 10 TEN 17
Your call
Did the Colts earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colts win 94% of them, Titans 6%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colts by 17+ | 53.0% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 23.5% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 16.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Titans by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 57 yds made · 61% expected
- S. Shrader, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Slye, 42 yds made · 85% expected
- J. Slye, 64 yds missed · 34% expected
- S. Shrader, 51 yds missed · 68% expected
- J. Slye, 62 yds blocked · 45% expected
- S. Shrader, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Colts 4 for 23 yards, Titans 8 for 68 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:04 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards | +2% TEN +1.3 pts |
| Q1 1:18 | Defensive Holding on the Titans (L'Jarius Sneed), 1 yard | +1% IND +0.4 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Illegal Shift on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% IND +1.9 pts |
| Q2 10:50 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Kyzir White), 5 yards | +1% IND +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:42 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +1.1 pts |
| Q3 14:14 | Defensive Offside on the Titans (L'Jarius Sneed), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.5 pts |
| Q3 5:38 | Defensive Holding on the Colts (Xavien Howard), 3 yards | +1% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Defensive Offside on the Colts (Nick Cross), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 13:18 | Illegal Motion on the Titans (Van Jefferson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% IND +2.4 pts |
| Q4 12:04 | Defensive Holding on the Colts (Charvarius Ward), 5 yards | +1% TEN +2.2 pts |
| Q4 9:30 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +1.0 pts |
| Q4 6:45 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Darrell Baker), 37 yards | 0% IND +3.1 pts |
Colts penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:20 | The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams | +23% IND | TEN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 12:45 | J. Slye made a 57-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 48 of 72 from 45+ before | +10% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:43 | The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +4% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 3:35 | The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 15:00 | Illegal Shift on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +5% IND | IND: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 3:19 | S. Shrader missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 3 of 3 from 45+ before | +5% TEN | IND: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 0:47 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +5% IND | TEN: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q2 0:42 | J. Slye had a 62-yard field goal blockedKicks · 45% expected for him, 49 of 74 from 45+ beforeDelay of Game on the Titans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% IND | TEN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- JC Latham (TEN T), out · 0.7 pts
- Kevin Zeitler (TEN G), out · 0.4 pts
- T'Vondre Sweat (TEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tyjae Spears (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Will Levis (TEN QB), out (IR), replaced by c.ward · 0.2 pts
- Jaylon Jones (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colts 100% · Titans 0%
- Final margin
- Colts by 21
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colts by 23.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Colts 94% · Titans 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Colts · 
Titans
More from Week 3 2025
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 31–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers CAR 30–0 · replay 71% for the winner
- Bengals at Vikings MIN 48–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Packers at Browns CLE 13–10 · replay 17% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars JAX 17–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Rams at Eagles PHI 33–26 · replay 14% for the winner
- Raiders at Commanders WAS 41–24 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jets at Buccaneers TB 29–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots PIT 21–14 · replay 62% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers LAC 23–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- Saints at Seahawks SEA 44–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers SF 16–15 · replay 73% for the winner
- Cowboys at Bears CHI 31–14 · replay 50% for the winner
- Chiefs at Giants KC 22–9 · replay 65% for the winner
- Lions at Ravens DET 38–30 · replay 76% for the winner