luckadjusted

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Steelers at Patriots, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Patriots 21–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): the Patriots converted 4th & 2, worth 24 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 21
New England Patriots 14

September 21, 2025 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −1.5

Luck index +38 Steelers lucky · −38 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 6, Patriots win 4.

  1. 1 PIT 26 NE 6
  2. 2 PIT 17 NE 3
  3. 3 PIT 16 NE 6
  4. 4 PIT 24 NE 17
  5. 5 PIT 20 NE 16
  6. 6 PIT 20 NE 17
  7. 7 PIT 14 NE 16
  8. 8 PIT 23 NE 28
  9. 9 PIT 13 NE 23
  10. 10 PIT 17 NE 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 62% of them, Patriots 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+12.3%
Steelers by 9–1617.0%
Steelers by 1–830.2%
Level after regulation3.3%
Patriots by 1–820.3%
Patriots by 9–1611.9%
Patriots by 17+5.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 1.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:51 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Alex Austin), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 674 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:12 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% PIT NE: Turnover
3 Q3 13:46 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% NE PIT: Punt
4 Q4 15:00 The Patriots converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +24% NE NE: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 41 flags in 5758 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% PIT PIT: Punt
6 Q4 8:28 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +11% NE NE: Turnover
7 Q4 2:20 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +22% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:07 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +10% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Gonzalez (NE CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Layden Robinson (NE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jahlani Tavai (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joey Porter Jr. (PIT CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (PIT FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 43% · Patriots 57%

Final margin
Steelers by 7
Luck in points
8.3 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 62% · Patriots 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Steelers · Patriots

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