luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 15, 2025

Buccaneers at Texans, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Texans 20–19 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 5.1 points to the Texans.

An off day for the Texans: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Texans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:19 left): the Texans were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 22 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Houston Texans 19

September 15, 2025 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −2.5

Luck index +23 Buccaneers about even · −23 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 8, Texans win 2.

  1. 1 TB 51 HOU 21
  2. 2 TB 40 HOU 17
  3. 3 TB 24 HOU 7
  4. 4 TB 37 HOU 23
  5. 5 TB 38 HOU 27
  6. 6 TB 34 HOU 26
  7. 7 TB 34 HOU 30
  8. 8 TB 9 HOU 7
  9. 9 TB 20 HOU 24
  10. 10 TB 3 HOU 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Texans

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%.

32 points apart for the Texans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.18 worse by 0.04
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.07 +0.10 better by 0.17
Texans offenseEPA per play gained −0.07 +0.06 worse by 0.13
Texans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.06 worse by 0.07

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 77% of them, Texans 23%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+30.3%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.6%
Buccaneers by 1–826.4%
Level after regulation2.4%
Texans by 1–812.3%
Texans by 9–165.7%
Texans by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 2.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 38 yds missed · 91% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 53 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 8:51 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +10% TB HOU: Punt
2 Q3 1:05 C. McLaughlin missed 38-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +9% HOU TB: Punt
3 Q4 13:32 The Texans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 11:19 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +22% TB HOU: Field goal
5 Q4 6:23 Blocked punt by the TexansSpecial teams +16% HOU HOU: Field goal
6 Q4 4:00 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +11% HOU TB: Punt
7 Q4 1:24 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:06 The Buccaneers’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cade Stover (HOU TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tristan Wirfs (TB T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Izien (TB SS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 58% · Texans 42%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 1
Luck in points
1.2 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 77% · Texans 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Buccaneers · Texans

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