luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 11, 2025

Commanders at Packers, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Commanders 27–18, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Commanders had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 13.6 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:17 left): Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 18
Green Bay Packers 27

September 11, 2025 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3.5

Luck index +8 Packers about even · −8 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 WAS 30 GB 24
  2. 2 WAS 24 GB 26
  3. 3 WAS 17 GB 23
  4. 4 WAS 17 GB 26
  5. 5 WAS 37 GB 49
  6. 6 WAS 13 GB 27
  7. 7 WAS 24 GB 43
  8. 8 WAS 9 GB 30
  9. 9 WAS 33 GB 59
  10. 10 WAS 10 GB 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 8% of them, Packers 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+0.5%
Commanders by 9–161.9%
Commanders by 1–85.5%
Level after regulation1.4%
Packers by 1–817.0%
Packers by 9–1621.1%
Packers by 17+52.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 22.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 51 yds made · 69% expected
  • M. Gay, 58 yds missed · 58% expected
  • B. McManus, 48 yds missed · 76% expected
  • M. Gay, 52 yds missed · 67% expected
  • B. McManus, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. McManus, 56 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:50 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 35 flags in 4688 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% GB GB: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 11:17 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% WAS WAS: Punt
3 Q1 10:30 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% WAS GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:10 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:16 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% GB GB: Punt
6 Q2 0:19 M. Gay missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 50 of 72 from 45+ before +6% GB WAS: Missed field goal
7 Q2 0:04 B. McManus missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 62 of 88 from 45+ before +7% WAS GB: Field goal
8 Q3 12:14 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +8% GB WAS: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Tom (GB T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 1% · Packers 99%

Final margin
Packers by 9
Luck in points
13.3 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 22.3
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 8% · Packers 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Commanders · Packers

More from Week 2 2025