Week 2 2025 · September 11, 2025
Commanders at Packers, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Commanders 27–18, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Commanders had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Commanders.
Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:17 left): Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Commanders.
Final
 Washington Commanders | 18 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Packers about even · −9 Commanders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Commanders win 1, Packers win 9.
- 1 WAS 26 GB 20
- 2 WAS 27 GB 29
- 3 WAS 17 GB 21
- 4 WAS 30 GB 37
- 5 WAS 20 GB 30
- 6 WAS 23 GB 37
- 7 WAS 17 GB 35
- 8 WAS 12 GB 34
- 9 WAS 27 GB 53
- 10 WAS 13 GB 46
Your call
Did the Packers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Commanders win 9% of them, Packers 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Commanders by 17+ | 0.5% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 5.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 17.9% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 21.7% |
| Packers by 17+ | 50.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Gay, 51 yds made · 67% expected
- M. Gay, 58 yds missed · 60% expected
- B. McManus, 48 yds missed · 76% expected
- M. Gay, 52 yds missed · 66% expected
- B. McManus, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- B. McManus, 56 yds made · 65% expected
Penalties: Commanders 5 for 30 yards, Packers 10 for 77 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:50 | Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 5 yards | +5% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q1 11:46 | False Start on the Packers (Josh Jacobs), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% WAS +0.7 pts |
| Q1 11:17 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +19% WAS +5.9 pts |
| Q1 3:16 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Face Mask on the Packers (Ty'Ron Hopper), 15 yards | +2% WAS +1.4 pts |
| Q2 3:41 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (John FitzPatrick), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% WAS +1.7 pts |
| Q2 1:09 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GB +0.4 pts |
| Q3 9:47 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +2% WAS +1.3 pts |
| Q3 9:27 | False Start on the Packers (Tucker Kraft), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.4 pts |
| Q3 5:12 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Kamal Hadden), 9 yards | +1% WAS +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:22 | Defensive Holding on the Packers (Nate Hobbs), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% WAS +2.9 pts |
| Q4 13:09 | Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 5 yards | 0% GB +0.2 pts |
| Q4 3:47 | Defensive Holding on the Packers (Xavier McKinney), 3 yards | 0% WAS +1.3 pts |
| Q4 3:43 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:53 | Defensive Offside on the Packers (Lukas Van Ness), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAS +0.3 pts |
Commanders penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:50 | Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 35 flags in 4688 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +5% GB | GB: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 11:17 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +19% WAS | WAS: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:30 | The Packers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +6% WAS | GB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:10 | The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:16 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% GB | GB: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:19 | M. Gay missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 50 of 72 from 45+ before | +7% GB | WAS: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 0:04 | B. McManus missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 62 of 88 from 45+ before | +7% WAS | GB: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 14:26 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Zach Tom (GB T), out · 1.0 pts
- Christian Watson (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Commanders 2% · Packers 98%
- Final margin
- Packers by 9
- Luck in points
- 6.3 for the Commanders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 15.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Commanders 9% · Packers 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Commanders · 
Packers
More from Week 2 2025
- Bills at Jets BUF 30–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bears at Lions DET 52–21 · replay 100% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 41–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bengals CIN 31–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- Rams at Titans LA 33–19 · replay 91% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins NE 33–27 · replay 44% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 40–37 · replay 12% for the winner
- Seahawks at Steelers SEA 31–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- 49ers at Saints SF 26–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Panthers at Cardinals ARI 27–22 · replay 89% for the winner
- Broncos at Colts IND 29–28 · replay 64% for the winner
- Eagles at Chiefs PHI 20–17 · replay 10% for the winner
- Falcons at Vikings ATL 22–6 · replay 93% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Texans TB 20–19 · replay 78% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LAC 20–9 · replay 76% for the winner