luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Colts at Chargers, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Chargers 38–24, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:28 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Mekhi Blackmon), 25 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 38
Los Angeles Chargers 24

October 19, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +40 Colts lucky · −40 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 6, Chargers win 4.

  1. 1 IND 34 LAC 14
  2. 2 IND 34 LAC 20
  3. 3 IND 35 LAC 24
  4. 4 IND 31 LAC 24
  5. 5 IND 35 LAC 31
  6. 6 IND 28 LAC 26
  7. 7 IND 17 LAC 20
  8. 8 IND 14 LAC 19
  9. 9 IND 28 LAC 37
  10. 10 IND 17 LAC 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 60% of them, Chargers 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+12.3%
Colts by 9–1616.3%
Colts by 1–830.1%
Level after regulation2.9%
Chargers by 1–821.8%
Chargers by 9–1611.4%
Chargers by 17+5.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 14, without the luck Colts by 11.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 43 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Badgley, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 3 for 42 yards, Chargers 6 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Mekhi Blackmon), 25 yards +10% LAC +3.0 pts
Q1 8:10 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +1.0 pts
Q2 14:54 Illegal Formation on the Chargers (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.3 pts
Q2 13:45 Encroachment on the Colts (Adetomiwa Adebawore), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.7 pts
Q2 13:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers (Teair Tart), 10 yards +4% IND +0.8 pts
Q2 2:52 Face Mask on the Colts (Kenny Moore), 12 yards +2% LAC +1.5 pts
Q3 11:16 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% IND +2.3 pts
Q4 5:04 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 3:36 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.1 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Mekhi Blackmon), 25 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 729 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% LAC LAC: Field goal
2 Q1 4:20 The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +5% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:20 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +4% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q2 15:00 The Colts converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers (Teair Tart), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2172 snaps before, position avg 1 per 373 +4% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q2 11:51 The Colts converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:48 The Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +5% IND LAC: Turnover
8 Q2 1:18 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +4% IND IND: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Alt (LAC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jamaree Salyer (LAC G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Pipkins (LAC G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jamaree Salyer (LAC OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Molden (LAC DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Omarion Hampton (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (LAC DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Dye (LAC LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Josh Harris (LAC LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jaylon Jones (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Josh Downs (IND WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 98% · Chargers 2%

Final margin
Colts by 14
Luck in points
2.6 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 11.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 60% · Chargers 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Colts · Chargers

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