luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 20, 2025

Buccaneers at Lions, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Buccaneers 24–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.5 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Lions were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:49 left): the Lions were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 16 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9
Detroit Lions 24

October 20, 2025 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −6

Luck index +33 Lions lucky · −33 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 3, Lions win 7.

  1. 1 TB 33 DET 15
  2. 2 TB 26 DET 17
  3. 3 TB 10 DET 7
  4. 4 TB 16 DET 18
  5. 5 TB 12 DET 17
  6. 6 TB 14 DET 22
  7. 7 TB 19 DET 29
  8. 8 TB 17 DET 31
  9. 9 TB 17 DET 36
  10. 10 TB 20 DET 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 33% of them, Lions 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+6.5%
Buccaneers by 9–169.9%
Buccaneers by 1–816.3%
Level after regulation2.6%
Lions by 1–823.1%
Lions by 9–1619.8%
Lions by 17+21.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 24.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 54 yds missed · 69% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 53 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Bates, 58 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:49 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedThe Lions fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% TB DET: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 0:46 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% TB DET: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 23 yardsJudgment calls · 27 flags in 3764 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% TB TB: Punt
4 Q2 10:56 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% TB DET: Punt
5 Q2 1:56 J. Bates missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 12 of 17 from 45+ before +5% TB DET: Turnover
6 Q2 1:52 The Buccaneers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% DET TB: Field goal
7 Q3 10:21 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +5% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:26 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kerby Joseph (DET FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET S), out · 0.8 pts
  • Terrion Arnold (DET CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Brian Branch (DET SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • D.J. Reed (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Levi Onwuzurike (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Luke Haggard (TB T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bucky Irving (TB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kindle Vildor (TB CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 0% · Lions 100%

Final margin
Lions by 15
Luck in points
9.9 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 24.9
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 33% · Lions 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Buccaneers · Lions

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