luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Rams vs Jaguars, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Jaguars 35–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 59% favorites.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 35
Jacksonville Jaguars 7

October 19, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3

Luck index +11 Rams about even · −11 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 LA 44 JAX 12
  2. 2 LA 41 JAX 17
  3. 3 LA 33 JAX 13
  4. 4 LA 34 JAX 17
  5. 5 LA 30 JAX 17
  6. 6 LA 33 JAX 23
  7. 7 LA 45 JAX 37
  8. 8 LA 29 JAX 24
  9. 9 LA 22 JAX 20
  10. 10 LA 16 JAX 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 89% of them, Jaguars 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+47.6%
Rams by 9–1622.2%
Rams by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation2.0%
Jaguars by 1–86.4%
Jaguars by 9–161.9%
Jaguars by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.9 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 28, without the luck Rams by 13.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Rams 5 for 45 yards, Jaguars 12 for 102 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:22 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Andrew Wingard), 3 yards +1% LA +0.3 pts
Q1 6:32 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +3% LA +1.2 pts
Q1 5:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Andrew Wingard), 26 yards +5% LA +1.4 pts
Q2 10:15 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Jarrian Jones), 10 yards +2% LA +0.9 pts
Q2 6:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Jourdan Lewis), 17 yards 0% LA +1.0 pts
Q3 12:06 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Tim Patrick), 10 yards 0% LA +0.9 pts
Q3 11:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Darious Williams), 15 yards 0% JAX +1.2 pts
Q3 11:39 Defensive Holding on the Rams (Kamren Curl), 5 yards +1% JAX +1.0 pts
Q3 9:53 Illegal Contact on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 5 yards 0% LA +0.4 pts
Q3 4:53 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts
Q3 4:42 Face Mask on the Rams (Ty Hamilton), 15 yards +1% JAX +1.8 pts
Q3 0:42 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.6 pts
Q4 13:05 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% LA +2.6 pts
Q4 11:19 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.8 pts
Q4 7:35 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.9 pts
Q4 6:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Jourdan Lewis), 6 yards 0% LA +2.5 pts
Q4 5:07 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Dennis Gardeck), 1 yard 0% LA +1.1 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:01 The Rams converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +6% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:32 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Andrew Wingard), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 4161 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +5% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:43 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +3% LA JAX: Punt
5 Q2 13:15 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +3% JAX JAX: Punt
6 Q2 7:09 B. Thomas dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 135 catchable balls before this +4% LA JAX: Missed field goal
7 Q2 7:02 C. Little missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 10 of 14 from 45+ before +4% LA JAX: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 10:41 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +3% LA JAX: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brenton Strange (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Devin Lloyd (JAX LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Puka Nacua (LA WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Beaux Limmer (LA C), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 98% · Jaguars 2%

Final margin
Rams by 28
Luck in points
14.9 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 13.1
Replay with same day's form
Rams 89% · Jaguars 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Rams · Jaguars

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