luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Rams vs Jaguars, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Jaguars 35–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 2.7 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Rams were 59% favorites.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 35
Jacksonville Jaguars 7

October 19, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3

Luck index +5 Rams about even · −5 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 LA 36 JAX 0
  2. 2 LA 41 JAX 13
  3. 3 LA 34 JAX 10
  4. 4 LA 47 JAX 27
  5. 5 LA 47 JAX 30
  6. 6 LA 23 JAX 10
  7. 7 LA 26 JAX 16
  8. 8 LA 27 JAX 21
  9. 9 LA 23 JAX 20
  10. 10 LA 24 JAX 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 95% of them, Jaguars 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+62.6%
Rams by 9–1621.6%
Rams by 1–810.1%
Level after regulation0.5%
Jaguars by 1–83.8%
Jaguars by 9–161.2%
Jaguars by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 9.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:01 The Rams converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:32 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:18 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +3% LA JAX: Punt
4 Q1 5:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Andrew Wingard), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 4161 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +5% LA LA: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:43 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +3% LA JAX: Punt
6 Q2 13:15 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% JAX JAX: Punt
7 Q2 7:09 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedB. Thomas dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 135 catchable balls before this +6% LA JAX: Missed field goal
8 Q2 7:02 C. Little missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 10 of 14 from 45+ before +4% LA JAX: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brenton Strange (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Devin Lloyd (JAX LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Puka Nacua (LA WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Beaux Limmer (LA C), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 84% · Jaguars 16%

Final margin
Rams by 28
Luck in points
18.1 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 9.9
Replay with same day's form
Rams 95% · Jaguars 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Rams · Jaguars

More from Week 7 2025