luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Jaguars at Colts, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Colts 23–17, but the replays lean toward the Colts: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): the Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 48 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 23
Indianapolis Colts 17

December 28, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3.5

Luck index +61 Jaguars very lucky · −61 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Colts win 6.

  1. 1 JAX 30 IND 10
  2. 2 JAX 15 IND 3
  3. 3 JAX 24 IND 17
  4. 4 JAX 27 IND 24
  5. 5 JAX 13 IND 15
  6. 6 JAX 30 IND 34
  7. 7 JAX 23 IND 30
  8. 8 JAX 14 IND 25
  9. 9 JAX 21 IND 37
  10. 10 JAX 3 IND 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 39% of them, Colts 61%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+7.0%
Jaguars by 9–1612.6%
Jaguars by 1–817.7%
Level after regulation3.5%
Colts by 1–829.4%
Colts by 9–1616.4%
Colts by 17+13.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.0 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 6, without the luck Colts by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Little, 34 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Little, 42 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Little, 53 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 6 for 55 yards, Colts 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:14 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Ventrell Miller), 10 yards +2% IND +0.6 pts
Q1 4:02 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars (Matt Dickerson), 5 yards 0% IND +0.3 pts
Q2 3:58 Face Mask on the Colts (Nick Cross), 15 yards +3% JAX +1.4 pts
Q2 3:58 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.4 pts
Q3 10:19 Intentional Grounding on the Colts (Philip Rivers), 10 yards +3% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 6:51 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Tyler Warren), 10 yards, wiping out the play +18% JAX +3.3 pts
Q3 6:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Eric Murray), 26 yards +11% IND +1.6 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Colts (Josh Downs), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.3 pts
Q4 2:15 Illegal Shift on the Jaguars, 4 yards · pre-snap +4% IND +0.9 pts
Q4 2:11 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.5 pts
Q4 0:13 Defensive Delay of Game on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% IND +0.5 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:13 The Jaguars fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% IND JAX: Touchdown
2 Q3 7:08 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +15% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:51 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Tyler Warren), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 800 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +18% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q3 6:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Eric Murray), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 4706 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +11% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:30 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +10% IND JAX: Field goal
6 Q4 7:59 The Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +11% JAX IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 3:54 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% JAX IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:04 The Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +48% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Daniel Jones (IND QB), out (IR), replaced by p.rivers · 1.5 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tanor Bortolini (IND C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Hainsey (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 61% · Colts 39%

Final margin
Jaguars by 6
Luck in points
7.0 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 39% · Colts 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Jaguars · Colts

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