luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Jaguars at Colts, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Colts 23–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jaguars win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.4 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): the Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 48 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 23
Indianapolis Colts 17

December 28, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3.5

Luck index +59 Jaguars lucky · −59 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Colts win 6.

  1. 1 JAX 25 IND 6
  2. 2 JAX 30 IND 20
  3. 3 JAX 23 IND 17
  4. 4 JAX 22 IND 20
  5. 5 JAX 14 IND 16
  6. 6 JAX 21 IND 27
  7. 7 JAX 28 IND 37
  8. 8 JAX 16 IND 28
  9. 9 JAX 10 IND 26
  10. 10 JAX 10 IND 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 41% of them, Colts 59%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+6.6%
Jaguars by 9–1612.8%
Jaguars by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation3.5%
Colts by 1–828.1%
Colts by 9–1616.7%
Colts by 17+13.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 3.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Little, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Little, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Little, 53 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:19 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Colts (Philip Rivers), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2268 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +12% JAX IND: Punt
2 Q3 8:03 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +15% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q3 7:08 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +15% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q3 6:51 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Tyler Warren), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 800 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +18% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q3 6:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Eric Murray), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 4706 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +11% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:59 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +29% JAX IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 3:54 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +15% JAX IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:04 The Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +48% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Daniel Jones (IND QB), out (IR), replaced by p.rivers · 1.5 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tanor Bortolini (IND C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Hainsey (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 50% · Colts 50%

Final margin
Jaguars by 6
Luck in points
9.1 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 41% · Colts 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Jaguars · Colts

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