luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 29, 2025

Rams at Falcons, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Rams 27–24, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 5.3 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Rams were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:51 left): Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 30 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 24
Atlanta Falcons 27

December 29, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Rams −7.5

Luck index +64 Falcons very lucky · −64 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 6, Falcons win 4.

  1. 1 LA 47 ATL 22
  2. 2 LA 33 ATL 16
  3. 3 LA 26 ATL 14
  4. 4 LA 37 ATL 28
  5. 5 LA 20 ATL 15
  6. 6 LA 13 ATL 10
  7. 7 LA 9 ATL 10
  8. 8 LA 26 ATL 31
  9. 9 LA 30 ATL 41
  10. 10 LA 10 ATL 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 64% of them, Falcons 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+18.3%
Rams by 9–1619.9%
Rams by 1–824.9%
Level after regulation2.3%
Falcons by 1–818.6%
Falcons by 9–169.9%
Falcons by 17+6.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 7.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Mevis, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 37 yds blocked · 92% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 51 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:25 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:42 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +28% ATL LA: Punt
3 Q3 0:43 Z. Gonzalez had a 37-yard field goal blockedKicks · 92% expected for him +13% LA ATL: Punt
4 Q4 10:04 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (James Pearce), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 516 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +13% LA LA: Turnover
5 Q4 4:51 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +30% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q4 3:33 The Rams converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +12% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:43 The Falcons converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% ATL ATL: Field goal
8 Q4 0:25 Z. Gonzalez made 51-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 35 of 48 from 45+ before +18% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Hughes (ATL CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Davante Adams (LA WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kevin Dotson (LA OL), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Alaric Jackson (LA OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Quentin Lake (LA S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 74% · Falcons 26%

Final margin
Falcons by 3
Luck in points
10.3 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
Rams 64% · Falcons 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Rams · Falcons

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