luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Jets at Saints, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Jets 29–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 68% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 6
New Orleans Saints 29

December 21, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −6.5

Luck index +5 Saints about even · −5 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 1, Saints win 9.

  1. 1 NYJ 17 NO 10
  2. 2 NYJ 14 NO 17
  3. 3 NYJ 22 NO 28
  4. 4 NYJ 7 NO 16
  5. 5 NYJ 9 NO 21
  6. 6 NYJ 21 NO 35
  7. 7 NYJ 21 NO 38
  8. 8 NYJ 7 NO 26
  9. 9 NYJ 6 NO 29
  10. 10 NYJ 3 NO 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 5% of them, Saints 95%. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.1%
Jets by 9–161.2%
Jets by 1–84.0%
Level after regulation0.5%
Saints by 1–814.9%
Saints by 9–1621.6%
Saints by 17+57.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 23, without the luck Saints by 19.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 29 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Smyth, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Smyth, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • N. Folk, 36 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Smyth, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Smyth, 61 yds missed · 57% expected
  • C. Smyth, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. Smyth, 39 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 7 for 54 yards, Saints 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:38 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Jets (Austin McNamara), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NO 0.0 pts
Q1 4:38 Chop Block on the Jets, 14 yards +6% NO +2.6 pts
Q1 3:28 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Cam Jones), 10 yards +3% NO +0.9 pts
Q2 14:18 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 15 yards +6% NYJ +1.8 pts
Q2 9:08 False Start on the Jets (Isaiah Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 13:42 Illegal Shift on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 8:29 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +4% NO +0.9 pts
Q3 0:07 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Jeremy Ruckert), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NO +2.3 pts
Q4 11:09 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints, 5 yards 0% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q4 6:07 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NYJ +3.9 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:44 The Saints converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% NO NO: Field goal
2 Q1 4:38 Chop Block on the Jets, 14 yardsJudgment calls +6% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q2 15:00 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% NYJ NO: Field goal
4 Q2 14:23 C. Smyth made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +7% NO NO: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 14:18 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 3805 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +6% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
6 Q2 1:40 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% NYJ NO: Field goal
7 Q2 0:34 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% NO NO: Missed field goal
8 Q3 0:07 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Jeremy Ruckert), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1746 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +6% NO NO: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cesar Ruiz (NO C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Devaughn Vele (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Fields (NYJ QB), out, replaced by b.cook · 1.4 pts
  • Andre Cisco (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mason Taylor (NYJ TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Azareye'h Thomas (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 23
Luck in points
3.6 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 19.4
Replay with same day's form
Jets 5% · Saints 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Jets · Saints

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