Week 16 2025 · December 20, 2025
Packers at Bears, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?
The Bears beat the Packers 22–16, but the replays lean toward the Packers: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Bears.
The Bears won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bears were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:28 left): the Bears converted 4th & 4, worth 24 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final (OT)
 Green Bay Packers | 16 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +76 Bears very lucky · −76 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 8, Bears win 2.
- 1 GB 37 CHI 10
- 2 GB 27 CHI 7
- 3 GB 36 CHI 20
- 4 GB 36 CHI 23
- 5 GB 27 CHI 17
- 6 GB 17 CHI 10
- 7 GB 17 CHI 13
- 8 GB 26 CHI 24
- 9 GB 20 CHI 23
- 10 GB 7 CHI 18
Your call
Did the Bears earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bears won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.19 | worse by 0.04 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.08 | worse by 0.02 |
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.08 | better by 0.02 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.12 | worse by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 76% of them, Bears 24%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 23.2% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 22.8% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 26.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 14.6% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 5.9% |
| Bears by 17+ | 2.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. McManus, 26 yds made · 97% expected
- B. McManus, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Santos, 46 yds made · 76% expected
- C. Santos, 51 yds made · 66% expected
- B. McManus, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Santos, 43 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Packers 4 for 40 yards, Bears 10 for 105 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (D'Marco Jackson), 15 yards | +3% GB +1.4 pts |
| Q1 13:20 | Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Austin Booker), 15 yards | +9% GB +1.5 pts |
| Q2 10:47 | Defensive Holding on the Packers (Carrington Valentine), 5 yards | +3% CHI +0.2 pts |
| Q2 10:02 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:21 | Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Austin Booker), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +4% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:51 | Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GB +0.2 pts |
| Q3 3:03 | False Start on the Packers (Luke Musgrave), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:39 | Taunting on the Packers (Jayden Reed), 15 yards | +4% CHI +1.4 pts |
| Q3 0:33 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (Elijah Hicks), 10 yards | +1% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:01 | Intentional Grounding on the Bears (Caleb Williams), 10 yards | +4% GB +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:45 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Jaquan Brisker), 15 yards | +2% GB +1.8 pts |
| Q4 3:27 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% GB +2.0 pts |
| Q4 3:15 | Face Mask on the Packers (Warren Brinson), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% CHI +3.0 pts |
| Q4 2:48 | Illegal Shift on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% GB +1.3 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:20 | Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Austin Booker), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 717 snaps before, position avg 1 per 373 | +9% GB | GB: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 9:51 | The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +10% CHI | GB: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 7:12 | The Packers fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CHI | GB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 11:01 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Bears (Caleb Williams), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2081 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 | +9% GB | CHI: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 1:59 | Onside kick recovered by the BearsSpecial teams | +11% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 0:28 | The Bears converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +24% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | OT 6:58 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +14% CHI | GB: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | OT 5:38 | The Bears converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +15% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Rome Odunze (CHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Dayo Odeyingbo (CHI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Tucker Kraft (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Elgton Jenkins (GB C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Zach Tom (GB OL), out · 0.6 pts
- Evan Williams (GB S), out · 0.3 pts
- Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 24% · Bears 76%
- Final margin
- Bears by 6
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bears by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 76% · Bears 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · 
Packers · 
Bears
More from Week 16 2025
- Rams at Seahawks SEA 38–37 · replay 17% for the winner
- Eagles at Commanders PHI 29–18 · replay 76% for the winner
- Bills at Browns BUF 23–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bengals at Dolphins CIN 45–21 · replay 92% for the winner
- Chiefs at Titans TEN 26–9 · replay 59% for the winner
- Chargers at Cowboys LAC 34–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Vikings at Giants MIN 16–13 · replay 49% for the winner
- Jets at Saints NO 29–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers CAR 23–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Falcons at Cardinals ATL 26–19 · replay 45% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos JAX 34–20 · replay 56% for the winner
- Raiders at Texans HOU 23–21 · replay 53% for the winner
- Steelers at Lions PIT 29–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Patriots at Ravens NE 28–24 · replay 50% for the winner
- 49ers at Colts SF 48–27 · replay 96% for the winner