luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Falcons at Jets, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jets stole one. They beat the Falcons 27–24, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:48 left): D. Mooney dropped a catchable pass, worth 45 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 24
New York Jets 27

November 30, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3

Luck index +89 Jets very lucky · −89 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Jets win 1.

  1. 1 ATL 40 NYJ 6
  2. 2 ATL 27 NYJ 3
  3. 3 ATL 34 NYJ 14
  4. 4 ATL 26 NYJ 9
  5. 5 ATL 33 NYJ 19
  6. 6 ATL 22 NYJ 10
  7. 7 ATL 26 NYJ 17
  8. 8 ATL 13 NYJ 7
  9. 9 ATL 17 NYJ 15
  10. 10 ATL 7 NYJ 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 89% of them, Jets 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+48.9%
Falcons by 9–1622.2%
Falcons by 1–816.4%
Level after regulation1.9%
Jets by 1–87.1%
Jets by 9–162.7%
Jets by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 1.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 50 yds missed · 71% expected
  • N. Folk, 55 yds missed · 69% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • N. Folk, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • N. Folk, 56 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 0:02 Z. Gonzalez made 52-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 32 of 44 from 45+ before +12% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q4 13:31 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedJ. Metchie dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 70 catchable balls before this +15% ATL NYJ: Field goal
3 Q4 8:52 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +23% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q4 4:27 The Jets converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:39 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedB. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 187 catchable balls before this +19% NYJ ATL: Punt
6 Q4 0:52 D. Sills dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 21 catchable balls before this +39% NYJ ATL: Punt
7 Q4 0:48 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedD. Mooney dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 172 catchable balls before this +45% NYJ ATL: Punt
8 Q4 0:05 N. Folk made 56-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 54 of 67 from 45+ before +20% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andre Cisco (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Arian Smith (NYJ WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Drake London (ATL WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Zach Harrison (ATL DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 46% · Jets 54%

Final margin
Jets by 3
Luck in points
1.3 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 89% · Jets 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Falcons · Jets

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