Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025
49ers at Browns, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Browns 26–8, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10.
An off day for the Browns: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers
Before kickoff the 49ers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:14 left): the Browns fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 9 points of win probability to the Browns.
Final
 San Francisco 49ers | 26 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 8 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 49ers about even · −2 Browns
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 10, Browns win 0.
- 1 SF 35 CLE 3
- 2 SF 29 CLE 3
- 3 SF 26 CLE 3
- 4 SF 23 CLE 3
- 5 SF 17 CLE 0
- 6 SF 26 CLE 10
- 7 SF 22 CLE 9
- 8 SF 13 CLE 3
- 9 SF 24 CLE 17
- 10 SF 23 CLE 20
Your call
Did the 49ers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Browns
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.16 | worse by 0.14 |
| 49ers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.02 | +0.12 | better by 0.13 |
| Browns offenseEPA per play gained | −0.02 | −0.04 | better by 0.02 |
| Browns defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.04 | better by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 98% of them, Browns 2%. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 70.6% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 7.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Browns by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Gay, 25 yds made · 96% expected
- M. Gay, 31 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: 49ers 3 for 11 yards, Browns 4 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:33 | Illegal Shift on the Browns (Jerry Jeudy), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% SF +1.2 pts |
| Q2 9:04 | Defensive Holding on the Browns (Rayshawn Jenkins), 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% CLE +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:39 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the 49ers, 1 yard · pre-snap | +2% SF 0.0 pts |
| Q3 9:53 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the 49ers, 5 yards | +2% CLE +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:25 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +1% SF +0.4 pts |
| Q4 6:04 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLE +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on the Browns (Shedeur Sanders), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SF +0.3 pts |
49ers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:41 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +7% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:02 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +7% SF | CLE: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:38 | The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 0:27 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% SF | SF: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 9:14 | The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% CLE | CLE: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 7:08 | The Browns fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% SF | CLE: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 3:33 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 1:33 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +6% SF | SF: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cornelius Lucas (CLE T), out · 0.5 pts
- Alex Wright (CLE DE), out · 0.3 pts
- Fred Warner (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Sam Okuayinonu (SF DL), out · 0.3 pts
- Connor Colby (SF OL), out · 0.2 pts
- Mykel Williams (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tatum Bethune (SF LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 97% · Browns 3%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 18
- Luck in points
- 6.8 for the 49ers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 11.2
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 98% · Browns 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
49ers · 
Browns
More from Week 13 2025
- Packers at Lions GB 31–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- Chiefs at Cowboys DAL 31–28 · replay 41% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens CIN 32–14 · replay 67% for the winner
- Bears at Eagles CHI 24–15 · replay 87% for the winner
- Cardinals at Buccaneers TB 20–17 · replay 7% for the winner
- Falcons at Jets NYJ 27–24 · replay 9% for the winner
- Texans at Colts HOU 20–16 · replay 22% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans JAX 25–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Rams at Panthers CAR 31–28 · replay 19% for the winner
- Saints at Dolphins MIA 21–17 · replay 72% for the winner
- Vikings at Seahawks SEA 26–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bills at Steelers BUF 26–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 31–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Commanders DEN 27–26 · replay 49% for the winner
- Giants at Patriots NE 33–15 · replay 93% for the winner