luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

49ers at Browns, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Browns 26–8, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10.

An off day for the Browns: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers

Before kickoff the 49ers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:08 left): the Browns were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 18 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 26
Cleveland Browns 8

November 30, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −5.5

Luck index +5 49ers about even · −5 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 10, Browns win 0.

  1. 1 SF 37 CLE 6
  2. 2 SF 29 CLE 3
  3. 3 SF 28 CLE 6
  4. 4 SF 27 CLE 9
  5. 5 SF 29 CLE 14
  6. 6 SF 29 CLE 17
  7. 7 SF 23 CLE 13
  8. 8 SF 24 CLE 17
  9. 9 SF 17 CLE 13
  10. 10 SF 30 CLE 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Browns

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.

33 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
49ers offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.16 worse by 0.14
49ers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.02 +0.12 better by 0.13
Browns offenseEPA per play gained −0.02 −0.04 better by 0.02
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.04 better by 0.02

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 95% of them, Browns 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+56.7%
49ers by 9–1622.1%
49ers by 1–815.2%
Level after regulation1.3%
Browns by 1–83.9%
Browns by 9–160.7%
Browns by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 10.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 31 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:41 The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:38 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CLE CLE: Punt
3 Q2 0:27 The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% SF SF: Field goal
4 Q2 0:04 M. Gay made 25-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +10% CLE SF: Punt
5 Q3 9:14 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% CLE CLE: Turnover
6 Q3 7:08 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedThe Browns fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% SF CLE: Punt
7 Q3 3:33 The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% SF SF: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:33 The 49ers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% SF SF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cornelius Lucas (CLE T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Alex Wright (CLE DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Fred Warner (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Mykel Williams (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Okuayinonu (SF DL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Connor Colby (SF OL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tatum Bethune (SF LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 97% · Browns 3%

Final margin
49ers by 18
Luck in points
7.7 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
49ers 95% · Browns 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 49ers · Browns

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