luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · December 1, 2025

Giants at Patriots, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Giants 33–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:37 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 15 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New York Giants 15
New England Patriots 33

December 1, 2025 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −7

Luck index +7 Patriots about even · −7 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 1, Patriots win 9.

  1. 1 NYG 23 NE 17
  2. 2 NYG 28 NE 30
  3. 3 NYG 30 NE 35
  4. 4 NYG 21 NE 29
  5. 5 NYG 16 NE 27
  6. 6 NYG 6 NE 20
  7. 7 NYG 13 NE 31
  8. 8 NYG 17 NE 38
  9. 9 NYG 3 NE 27
  10. 10 NYG 10 NE 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 7% of them, Patriots 93%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.4%
Giants by 9–162.1%
Giants by 1–84.5%
Level after regulation1.5%
Patriots by 1–817.1%
Patriots by 9–1622.0%
Patriots by 17+52.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to the Giants: the final margin was Patriots by 18, without the luck Patriots by 18.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Borregales, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Borregales, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Borregales, 45 yds missed · 79% expected
  • A. Borregales, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 4 for 30 yards, Patriots 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:42 False Start on the Giants (Theo Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.7 pts
Q1 4:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Theo Johnson), 15 yards +2% NE +1.4 pts
Q2 13:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Jaylinn Hawkins), 15 yards +3% NYG +2.4 pts
Q2 7:41 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards +4% NE +1.3 pts
Q2 4:37 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYG +1.6 pts
Q2 1:13 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.3 pts
Q4 10:52 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.3 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Patriots converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +4% NE NE: Field goal
2 Q1 11:20 The Patriots converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +4% NE NE: Field goal
3 Q1 9:21 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% NYG NE: Field goal
4 Q1 5:37 Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +15% NE NE: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 13:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Jaylinn Hawkins), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3833 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +3% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:41 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yardsJudgment calls +4% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:28 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +3% NE NYG: Field goal
8 Q2 4:37 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% NYG NYG: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Will Campbell (NE T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jared Wilson (NE OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Milton Williams (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Korie Black (NYG CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Darius Muasau (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cam Skattebo (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Patriots 100%

Final margin
Patriots by 18
Luck in points
0.5 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 18.5
Replay with same day's form
Giants 7% · Patriots 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Giants · Patriots

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