luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · December 1, 2025

Giants at Patriots, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Giants 33–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 8 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.0 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:37 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 15 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New York Giants 15
New England Patriots 33

December 1, 2025 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −7

Luck index +15 Patriots about even · −15 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Patriots win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 33 NE 22
  2. 2 NYG 13 NE 10
  3. 3 NYG 20 NE 22
  4. 4 NYG 9 NE 14
  5. 5 NYG 17 NE 24
  6. 6 NYG 20 NE 30
  7. 7 NYG 14 NE 27
  8. 8 NYG 17 NE 34
  9. 9 NYG 3 NE 24
  10. 10 NYG 23 NE 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 15% of them, Patriots 85%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+1.0%
Giants by 9–163.7%
Giants by 1–89.7%
Level after regulation0.9%
Patriots by 1–824.9%
Patriots by 9–1623.2%
Patriots by 17+36.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 19.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • A. Borregales, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Borregales, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Borregales, 45 yds missed · 78% expected
  • A. Borregales, 23 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Patriots converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% NE NE: Field goal
2 Q1 11:20 The Patriots converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% NE NE: Field goal
3 Q1 9:21 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% NYG NE: Field goal
4 Q1 5:37 Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +15% NE NE: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 7:41 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yardsJudgment calls +4% NE NE: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:28 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% NE NYG: Field goal
7 Q2 4:37 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% NYG NYG: Field goal
8 Q2 3:35 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Will Campbell (NE T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jared Wilson (NE OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Milton Williams (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Korie Black (NYG CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Darius Muasau (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cam Skattebo (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Patriots 100%

Final margin
Patriots by 18
Luck in points
1.7 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 19.7
Replay with same day's form
Giants 15% · Patriots 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Giants · Patriots

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