luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Saints at Dolphins, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Saints 21–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.7 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:44 left): C. Olave dropped a catchable pass, worth 40 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

New Orleans Saints 17
Miami Dolphins 21

November 30, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −5.5

Luck index +30 Dolphins lucky · −30 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 3, Dolphins win 7.

  1. 1 NO 21 MIA 6
  2. 2 NO 13 MIA 3
  3. 3 NO 24 MIA 21
  4. 4 NO 20 MIA 23
  5. 5 NO 13 MIA 20
  6. 6 NO 13 MIA 22
  7. 7 NO 3 MIA 15
  8. 8 NO 12 MIA 27
  9. 9 NO 20 MIA 39
  10. 10 NO 13 MIA 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 30% of them, Dolphins 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+3.9%
Saints by 9–168.6%
Saints by 1–815.2%
Level after regulation3.5%
Dolphins by 1–823.2%
Dolphins by 9–1621.2%
Dolphins by 17+24.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 0.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • R. Patterson, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Patterson, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • R. Patterson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Smyth, 56 yds made · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q3 9:10 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedJ. Hill dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 33 catchable balls before this +6% NO MIA: Punt
3 Q4 14:20 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +6% MIA NO: Punt
4 Q4 2:00 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:17 The Saints’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Saints got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsOnside kick recovered by the SaintsSpecial teams +19% NO NO: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 0:44 C. Olave dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 296 catchable balls before this +40% MIA NO: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:39 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +8% MIA NO: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:35 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +21% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 34% · Dolphins 66%

Final margin
Dolphins by 4
Luck in points
4.1 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Saints 30% · Dolphins 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Saints · Dolphins

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