luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Saints at Dolphins, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Saints 21–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:44 left): C. Olave dropped a catchable pass, worth 34 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

New Orleans Saints 17
Miami Dolphins 21

November 30, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −5.5

Luck index +28 Dolphins lucky · −28 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 3, Dolphins win 7.

  1. 1 NO 31 MIA 14
  2. 2 NO 30 MIA 21
  3. 3 NO 20 MIA 17
  4. 4 NO 13 MIA 15
  5. 5 NO 13 MIA 17
  6. 6 NO 13 MIA 20
  7. 7 NO 13 MIA 23
  8. 8 NO 7 MIA 21
  9. 9 NO 13 MIA 33
  10. 10 NO 0 MIA 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 28% of them, Dolphins 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+4.1%
Saints by 9–168.1%
Saints by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation3.4%
Dolphins by 1–823.9%
Dolphins by 9–1620.8%
Dolphins by 17+24.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.5 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 4, without the luck Dolphins by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • R. Patterson, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Patterson, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • R. Patterson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Smyth, 56 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 6 for 45 yards, Dolphins 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:10 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q2 11:43 Kick Catch Interference on the Saints (Michael Davis), 15 yards +2% MIA +1.4 pts
Q2 5:17 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q2 2:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Chop Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.6 pts
Q3 10:45 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.6 pts
Q3 8:19 False Start on the Saints (Foster Moreau), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.8 pts
Q3 6:19 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 2:37 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +4% MIA +0.5 pts
Q4 1:17 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA 0.0 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:37 The Saints fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% MIA NO: Punt
3 Q3 9:10 J. Hill dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 33 catchable balls before this +5% NO MIA: Punt
4 Q4 2:00 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:17 The Saints’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Saints got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsFalse Start on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsOnside kick recovered by the SaintsSpecial teams +14% NO NO: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 0:44 C. Olave dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 296 catchable balls before this +34% MIA NO: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:39 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% MIA NO: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:35 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +22% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 32% · Dolphins 68%

Final margin
Dolphins by 4
Luck in points
3.5 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Saints 28% · Dolphins 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Saints · Dolphins

More from Week 13 2025