luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Jets?

No, if anything the opposite. Judgment calls have cost the Jets 0.69 points a game since 2019, the 4th-most of 32 teams. The Jets haven’t played a playoff game since 2019.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Jets minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262−3.38 31st1212 –
202517+1.00 7th6458 –
202417+0.35 12th8672 –
202317−1.56 31st7057 –
202217−0.82 25th6054 –
202117+0.24 14th6953 –
202016−0.73 22nd7168 –
201916−3.13 31st8867 –

Biggest calls for the Jets

  1. Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 9 · 40 pts of win probability
  2. Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 30 yards · 2023 Week 8 · 40 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 1 · 30 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 8 · 21 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 1 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 13 · 21 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Defensive Holding on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 4 · 35 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Davante Adams), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 13 · 23 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 2 · 20 pts of win probability
  4. Illegal Contact on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 13 · 19 pts of win probability
  5. Face Mask on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 15 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 4 · 18 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Jets?

No, if anything the opposite. Judgment calls have cost the Jets 0.69 points a game since 2019, the 4th-most of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

The Jets haven’t played a playoff game since 2019.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · New York Jets, every season