luckadjusted

Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Jets, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Jets 31–28 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:13 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 10, worth 71 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 31
New York Jets 28

December 6, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −7.5

Luck index +29 Raiders lucky · −29 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 7, Jets win 3.

  1. 1 LV 45 NYJ 17
  2. 2 LV 37 NYJ 17
  3. 3 LV 41 NYJ 26
  4. 4 LV 17 NYJ 6
  5. 5 LV 27 NYJ 20
  6. 6 LV 25 NYJ 20
  7. 7 LV 33 NYJ 31
  8. 8 LV 20 NYJ 23
  9. 9 LV 33 NYJ 40
  10. 10 LV 27 NYJ 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 72% of them, Jets 28%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+26.6%
Raiders by 9–1618.8%
Raiders by 1–824.1%
Level after regulation3.3%
Jets by 1–814.4%
Jets by 9–168.4%
Jets by 17+4.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 3.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 48 yds made · 63% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 10:22 The Jets’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 1 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +24% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q4 8:56 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +31% NYJ LV: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 4:38 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +14% LV LV: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 3:13 Defensive Holding on the Jets, 5 yardsJudgment calls +13% LV LV: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 3:10 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% LV LV: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 2:11 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Marcus Maye), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1931 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +17% LV LV: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:42 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +39% NYJ LV: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:13 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +71% LV LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brian Poole (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Blessuan Austin (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bradley McDougald (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Ficken (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Lewis (NYJ OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Jacobs (LV RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Maliek Collins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Johnathan Abram (LV S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Carl Nassib (LV DE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 33% · Jets 67%

Final margin
Raiders by 3
Luck in points
6.6 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 72% · Jets 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · Raiders · Jets

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