Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Raiders at Jets, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?
The Raiders beat the Jets 31–28, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
Before kickoff the Raiders were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:42 left): the Raiders were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 33 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 Las Vegas Raiders | 31 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Raiders lucky · −27 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 7, Jets win 3.
- 1 LV 36 NYJ 7
- 2 LV 47 NYJ 27
- 3 LV 43 NYJ 28
- 4 LV 27 NYJ 16
- 5 LV 27 NYJ 19
- 6 LV 26 NYJ 21
- 7 LV 12 NYJ 10
- 8 LV 21 NYJ 24
- 9 LV 19 NYJ 26
- 10 LV 20 NYJ 38
Your call
Did the Raiders earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 73% of them, Jets 27%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 24.7% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 20.7% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 24.6% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 14.2% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 7.6% |
| Jets by 17+ | 4.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Carlson, 48 yds made · 63% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Raiders 3 for 21 yards, Jets 6 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:02 | Defensive Holding on the Jets (Bryce Hall), 5 yards | +3% LV +1.2 pts |
| Q2 4:05 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Lamarcus Joyner), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:12 | False Start on the Jets (Jamison Crowder), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.3 pts |
| Q3 7:14 | False Start on the Jets (Jamison Crowder), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.8 pts |
| Q3 6:05 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 15 yards | +1% LV +1.4 pts |
| Q4 10:22 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 1 yard, wiping out the play | +21% NYJ +3.6 pts |
| Q4 8:45 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 15 yards | +9% NYJ +1.4 pts |
| Q4 3:13 | Defensive Holding on the Jets, 5 yards | +13% LV +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:11 | Defensive Holding on the Jets (Marcus Maye), 5 yards | +17% LV +2.2 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 10:22 | The Jets’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 1 yard, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +24% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 4:38 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +12% LV | LV: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q4 3:13 | Defensive Holding on the Jets, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +13% LV | LV: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 3:10 | The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% LV | LV: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 2:11 | Defensive Holding on the Jets (Marcus Maye), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1931 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 | +17% LV | LV: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 1:55 | The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +10% NYJ | LV: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 1:42 | The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +33% NYJ | LV: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:13 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +28% LV | LV: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brian Poole (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Blessuan Austin (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Bradley McDougald (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Alex Lewis (NYJ OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Sam Ficken (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Josh Jacobs (LV RB), out · 0.5 pts
- Maliek Collins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Johnathan Abram (LV S), out · 0.3 pts
- Carl Nassib (LV DE), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 29% · Jets 71%
- Final margin
- Raiders by 3
- Luck in points
- 6.5 for the Raiders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 3.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 73% · Jets 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · 
Raiders · 
Jets
More from Week 13 2020
- Bengals at Dolphins MIA 19–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Browns at Titans CLE 41–35 · replay 64% for the winner
- Lions at Bears DET 34–30 · replay 87% for the winner
- Colts at Texans IND 26–20 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jaguars at Vikings MIN 27–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons NO 21–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 38–28 · replay 91% for the winner
- Giants at Seahawks NYG 17–12 · replay 54% for the winner
- Patriots at Chargers NE 45–0 · replay 55% for the winner
- Eagles at Packers GB 30–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 22–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington at Steelers WAS 23–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Bills vs 49ers BUF 34–24 · replay 53% for the winner
- Cowboys at Ravens BAL 34–17 · replay 77% for the winner