luckadjusted

Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Packers, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Eagles 30–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:48 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles, worth 13 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 16
Green Bay Packers 30

December 6, 2020 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −8

Luck index +10 Packers about even · −10 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 PHI 24 GB 17
  2. 2 PHI 16 GB 19
  3. 3 PHI 15 GB 20
  4. 4 PHI 20 GB 27
  5. 5 PHI 3 GB 14
  6. 6 PHI 10 GB 24
  7. 7 PHI 10 GB 27
  8. 8 PHI 14 GB 33
  9. 9 PHI 3 GB 27
  10. 10 PHI 14 GB 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 10% of them, Packers 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+0.6%
Eagles by 9–162.1%
Eagles by 1–86.7%
Level after regulation1.6%
Packers by 1–817.8%
Packers by 9–1621.7%
Packers by 17+49.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 10.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 52 yds made · 59% expected
  • M. Crosby, 40 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:59 Defensive Holding on the Packers, 5 yardsJudgment calls +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
2 Q1 7:58 J. Elliott made 52-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 5 of 12 from 45+ before +6% PHI PHI: Punt
3 Q1 2:02 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% GB PHI: Punt
4 Q2 8:33 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:40 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% GB PHI: Punt
6 Q2 1:05 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q3 5:35 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% GB GB: Field goal
8 Q4 6:48 The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +13% PHI PHI: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Corey Linsley (GB C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Jackson (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Krys Barnes (GB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Nathan Gerry (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 5% · Packers 95%

Final margin
Packers by 14
Luck in points
3.7 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 10% · Packers 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · Eagles · Packers

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