Week 13 2020 · December 8, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Cowboys at Ravens, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Cowboys 34–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:57 left): J. Tucker missed a 36-yard field goal, worth 12 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 17 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Ravens about even · −23 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 2, Ravens win 8.
- 1 DAL 44 BAL 33
- 2 DAL 36 BAL 33
- 3 DAL 17 BAL 19
- 4 DAL 13 BAL 17
- 5 DAL 17 BAL 24
- 6 DAL 28 BAL 37
- 7 DAL 24 BAL 37
- 8 DAL 9 BAL 24
- 9 DAL 7 BAL 27
- 10 DAL 13 BAL 40
Your call
Did the Ravens earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 23% of them, Ravens 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 2.5% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 6.4% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 12.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 27.3% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 20.8% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 28.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 31 yds made · 94% expected
- J. Tucker, 36 yds missed · 92% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 40 yds missed · 85% expected
- J. Tucker, 35 yds made · 92% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 53 yds missed · 60% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 52 yds missed · 60% expected
- J. Tucker, 22 yds made · 99% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 7 for 58 yards, Ravens 4 for 23 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:09 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% BAL +1.8 pts |
| Q2 9:11 | False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL +0.2 pts |
| Q2 2:27 | Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.1 pts |
| Q2 1:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Xavier Woods), 18 yards | +5% BAL +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +3% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:13 | False Start on the Cowboys (Amari Cooper), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.3 pts |
| Q3 13:29 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +2% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:28 | False Start on the Ravens (Justice Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:31 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 3 yards | 0% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:08 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:32 | False Start on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL +0.4 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:09 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% BAL | BAL: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 4:29 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% BAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 2:25 | The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 1:15 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 8:57 | J. Tucker missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him | +12% DAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 5:37 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +8% DAL | DAL: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 2:06 | G. Zuerlein missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him | +10% BAL | DAL: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 9:11 | G. Zuerlein missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 15 of 22 from 45+ before | +5% BAL | DAL: Missed field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Matt Judon (BAL OLB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Nick Boyle (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Willie Snead (BAL WR/R), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by a.dalton · 6.9 pts
- Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Tyler Biadasz (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Cameron Erving (DAL T), out · 0.6 pts
- Donovan Wilson (DAL S), out · 0.4 pts
- Anthony Brown (DAL DB), out · 0.3 pts
- Cameron Erving (DAL G), out · 0.3 pts
- Chris Jones (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Trysten Hill (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 4% · Ravens 96%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 17
- Luck in points
- 13.2 for the Ravens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 3.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 23% · Ravens 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · 
Cowboys · 
Ravens
More from Week 13 2020
- Bengals at Dolphins MIA 19–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Browns at Titans CLE 41–35 · replay 64% for the winner
- Lions at Bears DET 34–30 · replay 87% for the winner
- Colts at Texans IND 26–20 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jaguars at Vikings MIN 27–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- Raiders at Jets LV 31–28 · replay 73% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons NO 21–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 38–28 · replay 91% for the winner
- Giants at Seahawks NYG 17–12 · replay 54% for the winner
- Patriots at Chargers NE 45–0 · replay 55% for the winner
- Eagles at Packers GB 30–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 22–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington at Steelers WAS 23–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Bills vs 49ers BUF 34–24 · replay 53% for the winner