luckadjusted

Week 13 2020 · December 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Ravens, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Cowboys 34–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:11 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 15 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 17
Baltimore Ravens 34

December 8, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −8.5

Luck index +23 Ravens about even · −23 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 DAL 16 BAL 3
  2. 2 DAL 17 BAL 14
  3. 3 DAL 20 BAL 23
  4. 4 DAL 21 BAL 26
  5. 5 DAL 20 BAL 27
  6. 6 DAL 17 BAL 27
  7. 7 DAL 14 BAL 27
  8. 8 DAL 16 BAL 33
  9. 9 DAL 17 BAL 38
  10. 10 DAL 9 BAL 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 23% of them, Ravens 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+2.6%
Cowboys by 9–166.0%
Cowboys by 1–813.0%
Level after regulation2.1%
Ravens by 1–826.7%
Ravens by 9–1621.0%
Ravens by 17+28.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 1.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 31 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Tucker, 36 yds missed · 91% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 40 yds missed · 84% expected
  • J. Tucker, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 53 yds missed · 60% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 52 yds missed · 61% expected
  • J. Tucker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:11 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +15% DAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:25 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:32 The Ravens converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +14% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:08 The Ravens converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +8% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
5 Q2 8:57 J. Tucker missed 36-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +12% DAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 5:37 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% DAL DAL: Missed field goal
7 Q2 2:06 G. Zuerlein missed 40-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +10% BAL DAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 10:43 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% DAL DAL: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Matt Judon (BAL OLB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nick Boyle (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Willie Snead (BAL WR/R), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by a.dalton · 6.9 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Tyler Biadasz (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Cameron Erving (DAL T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cameron Erving (DAL G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Jones (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trysten Hill (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 6% · Ravens 94%

Final margin
Ravens by 17
Luck in points
15.7 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 23% · Ravens 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · Cowboys · Ravens

More from Week 13 2020