luckadjusted

Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Seahawks, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Seahawks 17–12, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Giants win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:06 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 24 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 17
Seattle Seahawks 12

December 6, 2020 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −11

Luck index +46 Giants lucky · −46 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 5, Seahawks win 5.

  1. 1 NYG 25 SEA 6
  2. 2 NYG 16 SEA 3
  3. 3 NYG 22 SEA 13
  4. 4 NYG 24 SEA 20
  5. 5 NYG 18 SEA 16
  6. 6 NYG 33 SEA 35
  7. 7 NYG 30 SEA 35
  8. 8 NYG 20 SEA 30
  9. 9 NYG 2 SEA 17
  10. 10 NYG 16 SEA 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 54% of them, Seahawks 46%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+12.3%
Giants by 9–1615.2%
Giants by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation5.1%
Seahawks by 1–822.1%
Seahawks by 9–1613.1%
Seahawks by 17+10.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 6.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Gano, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:49 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% NYG SEA: Punt
2 Q1 5:12 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% NYG NYG: Turnover
3 Q1 2:31 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +19% SEA NYG: Punt
4 Q2 6:06 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Seahawks fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% NYG SEA: Punt
5 Q3 10:56 The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% SEA SEA: Punt
6 Q3 5:14 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% NYG SEA: Punt
7 Q4 0:54 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +12% NYG SEA: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:48 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +10% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Greg Olsen (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tre Flowers (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out, replaced by c.mccoy · 1.6 pts
  • Ryan Lewis (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Devonta Freeman (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Adrian Colbert (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kyler Fackrell (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 91% · Seahawks 9%

Final margin
Giants by 5
Luck in points
1.1 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Giants 54% · Seahawks 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · Giants · Seahawks

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