Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Giants at Seahawks, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?
The Giants beat the Seahawks 17–12, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Giants win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Giants.
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:14 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to the Giants.
Final
 New York Giants | 17 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 12 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Giants lucky · −46 Seahawks
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Giants win 5, Seahawks win 5.
- 1 NYG 46 SEA 24
- 2 NYG 30 SEA 14
- 3 NYG 35 SEA 23
- 4 NYG 20 SEA 13
- 5 NYG 24 SEA 21
- 6 NYG 31 SEA 34
- 7 NYG 25 SEA 31
- 8 NYG 20 SEA 30
- 9 NYG 22 SEA 37
- 10 NYG 17 SEA 41
Your call
Did the Giants earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Giants win 54% of them, Seahawks 46%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Giants by 17+ | 11.7% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 16.2% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Level after regulation | 5.1% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 14.1% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 10.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Myers, 31 yds made · 96% expected
- G. Gano, 48 yds made · 78% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Giants 6 for 35 yards, Seahawks 6 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:07 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Jarran Reed), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYG +0.8 pts |
| Q1 11:03 | False Start on the Giants (Brandon Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SEA +0.5 pts |
| Q1 4:29 | Offensive Holding on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards | +2% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 13:04 | Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:00 | False Start on the Giants (Sterling Shepard), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SEA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:56 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +3% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:24 | Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Russell Wilson), 11 yards | +3% NYG +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:24 | False Start on the Seahawks (Jacob Hollister), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYG +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:21 | False Start on the Giants (Levine Toilolo), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 1:18 | Defensive Holding on the Giants (B.J. Hill), 5 yards | +3% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:04 | Illegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% NYG +1.8 pts |
| Q4 6:21 | Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards | +2% SEA +1.7 pts |
Giants penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:12 | The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% NYG | NYG: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 6:06 | The Seahawks fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% NYG | SEA: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 10:56 | The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 7:40 | The Giants’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +6% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 5:14 | The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +11% NYG | SEA: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 5:24 | The Giants converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +6% NYG | NYG: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 0:54 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% NYG | SEA: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:48 | The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +7% NYG | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
- Greg Olsen (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Tre Flowers (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out, replaced by c.mccoy · 1.6 pts
- Ryan Lewis (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Devonta Freeman (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Adrian Colbert (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Kyler Fackrell (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Giants 87% · Seahawks 13%
- Final margin
- Giants by 5
- Luck in points
- 0.1 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Giants by 4.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Giants 54% · Seahawks 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · 
Giants · 
Seahawks
More from Week 13 2020
- Bengals at Dolphins MIA 19–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Browns at Titans CLE 41–35 · replay 64% for the winner
- Lions at Bears DET 34–30 · replay 87% for the winner
- Colts at Texans IND 26–20 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jaguars at Vikings MIN 27–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- Raiders at Jets LV 31–28 · replay 73% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons NO 21–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 38–28 · replay 91% for the winner
- Patriots at Chargers NE 45–0 · replay 55% for the winner
- Eagles at Packers GB 30–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 22–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington at Steelers WAS 23–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Bills vs 49ers BUF 34–24 · replay 53% for the winner
- Cowboys at Ravens BAL 34–17 · replay 77% for the winner