Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024
Seahawks at Jets, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Jets 26–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Jets: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:40 left): Defensive Offside on the Jets (Will McDonald), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 25 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 26 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Seahawks about even · −10 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Jets win 1.
- 1 SEA 34 NYJ 6
- 2 SEA 25 NYJ 3
- 3 SEA 31 NYJ 12
- 4 SEA 35 NYJ 21
- 5 SEA 22 NYJ 10
- 6 SEA 20 NYJ 10
- 7 SEA 20 NYJ 13
- 8 SEA 13 NYJ 9
- 9 SEA 16 NYJ 14
- 10 SEA 13 NYJ 20
Your call
Did the Seahawks earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Jets
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | −0.02 | +0.08 | worse by 0.09 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.03 | +0.10 | better by 0.13 |
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | −0.03 | −0.00 | worse by 0.03 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.02 | +0.03 | better by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 90% of them, Jets 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 46.7% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 24.2% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 18.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Jets by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Myers, 54 yds made · 59% expected
- J. Myers, 43 yds made · 79% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Seahawks 5 for 50 yards, Jets 12 for 83 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:29 | Face Mask on the Seahawks (Leonard Williams), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +8% NYJ +3.0 pts |
| Q1 5:29 | False Start on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:41 | Defensive Holding on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 5 yards | +1% SEA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:39 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% NYJ +3.5 pts |
| Q3 6:45 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Chuck Clark), 2 yards | +6% SEA +1.3 pts |
| Q3 6:05 | Defensive Offside on the Jets, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.1 pts |
| Q3 5:28 | Defensive Offside on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% SEA +0.2 pts |
| Q3 4:25 | Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Dre'Mont Jones), 15 yards | +2% NYJ +1.3 pts |
| Q3 3:52 | Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SEA +1.2 pts |
| Q3 0:34 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYJ +1.2 pts |
| Q4 13:06 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Davante Adams), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +22% SEA +4.8 pts |
| Q4 12:29 | Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA +0.4 pts |
| Q4 9:34 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:18 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Qwan'tez Stiggers), 20 yards | +15% SEA +2.9 pts |
| Q4 7:07 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Jets (Solomon Thomas), 16 yards | +16% SEA +2.0 pts |
| Q4 5:40 | Defensive Offside on the Jets (Will McDonald), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +25% SEA +3.2 pts |
| Q4 4:33 | Illegal Shift on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +12% SEA +1.5 pts |
Seahawks penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 7:53 | The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams | +15% SEA | NYJ: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q3 0:16 | The Seahawks converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +15% SEA | SEA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 13:06 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Davante Adams), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 5106 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +22% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 9:18 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Qwan'tez Stiggers), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 157 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +15% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 7:07 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Jets (Solomon Thomas), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 2621 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 | +16% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:40 | Defensive Offside on the Jets (Will McDonald), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 773 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +25% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 3:31 | The Jets converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +13% NYJ | NYJ: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:38 | The Jets were stopped on 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +14% SEA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tyron Smith (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Stone Forsythe (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 78% · Jets 22%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 5
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 6.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 90% · Jets 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · 
Seahawks · 
Jets
More from Week 13 2024
- Bears at Lions DET 23–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 27–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Dolphins at Packers GB 30–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 19–17 · replay 52% for the winner
- Cardinals at Vikings MIN 23–22 · replay 56% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 23–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- Colts at Patriots IND 25–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Chargers at Falcons LAC 17–13 · replay 40% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals PIT 44–38 · replay 69% for the winner
- Titans at Commanders WAS 42–19 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rams at Saints LA 21–14 · replay 84% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 26–23 · replay 55% for the winner
- Eagles at Ravens PHI 24–19 · replay 53% for the winner
- 49ers at Bills BUF 35–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Browns at Broncos DEN 41–32 · replay 68% for the winner