luckadjusted

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Steelers at Bengals, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Bengals 44–38 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.6 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:59 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 42 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 44
Cincinnati Bengals 38

December 1, 2024 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3

Luck index +32 Steelers lucky · −32 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 7, Bengals win 3.

  1. 1 PIT 39 CIN 10
  2. 2 PIT 40 CIN 19
  3. 3 PIT 34 CIN 17
  4. 4 PIT 31 CIN 20
  5. 5 PIT 13 CIN 6
  6. 6 PIT 37 CIN 33
  7. 7 PIT 26 CIN 24
  8. 8 PIT 17 CIN 20
  9. 9 PIT 13 CIN 20
  10. 10 PIT 13 CIN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 68% of them, Bengals 32%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+22.8%
Steelers by 9–1620.5%
Steelers by 1–824.7%
Level after regulation3.5%
Bengals by 1–815.6%
Bengals by 9–168.3%
Bengals by 17+4.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 0.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 73% expected
  • C. Boswell, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Boswell, 42 yds blocked · 83% expected
  • E. McPherson, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:59 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedThe Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +42% CIN PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 4:46 The Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PIT CIN: Punt
3 Q3 11:34 C. Boswell had a 42-yard field goal blockedKicks · 83% expected for him +11% CIN PIT: Touchdown
4 Q3 7:40 The Bengals converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +13% CIN CIN: Field goal
5 Q3 5:30 T. Higgins dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 205 catchable balls before this +6% PIT CIN: Field goal
6 Q3 4:45 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +11% PIT CIN: Field goal
7 Q4 13:35 The Bengals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% PIT CIN: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 11:14 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +25% PIT CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zack Moss (CIN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 51% · Bengals 49%

Final margin
Steelers by 6
Luck in points
6.1 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 68% · Bengals 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Steelers · Bengals

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