luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Steelers at Bengals, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Bengals 44–38, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:59 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 23 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 44
Cincinnati Bengals 38

December 1, 2024 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3

Luck index +31 Steelers lucky · −31 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 7, Bengals win 3.

  1. 1 PIT 37 CIN 10
  2. 2 PIT 37 CIN 17
  3. 3 PIT 25 CIN 10
  4. 4 PIT 35 CIN 24
  5. 5 PIT 31 CIN 24
  6. 6 PIT 23 CIN 18
  7. 7 PIT 34 CIN 31
  8. 8 PIT 17 CIN 20
  9. 9 PIT 23 CIN 33
  10. 10 PIT 6 CIN 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 69% of them, Bengals 31%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+23.2%
Steelers by 9–1620.3%
Steelers by 1–824.4%
Level after regulation3.3%
Bengals by 1–815.5%
Bengals by 9–168.1%
Bengals by 17+5.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 6, without the luck Steelers by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • C. Boswell, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Boswell, 42 yds blocked · 84% expected
  • E. McPherson, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 9 for 103 yards, Bengals 11 for 101 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:06 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.5 pts
Q1 12:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Akeem Davis-Gaither), 23 yards +5% PIT +1.6 pts
Q1 4:15 Taunting on the Steelers (George Pickens), 15 yards +3% CIN +1.0 pts
Q1 2:17 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 13:41 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 5 yards 0% CIN +0.2 pts
Q2 11:34 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Drew Sample), 10 yards +3% PIT +1.2 pts
Q2 10:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 17 yards +5% CIN +1.3 pts
Q2 9:08 Face Mask on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 15 yards +5% PIT +1.8 pts
Q2 8:09 False Start on the Steelers, 6 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 7:50 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals, 10 yards +2% PIT +1.3 pts
Q2 2:05 False Start on the Bengals, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.3 pts
Q3 13:54 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers (George Pickens), 15 yards +3% CIN +1.0 pts
Q3 7:53 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.2 pts
Q3 3:19 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 13:35 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.7 pts
Q4 12:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 11 yards +2% PIT +0.8 pts
Q4 8:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 24 yards +5% CIN +2.5 pts
Q4 7:50 Face Mask on the Bengals (Akeem Davis-Gaither), 15 yards +3% PIT +1.8 pts
Q4 4:57 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 4 yards 0% PIT +1.4 pts
Q4 3:56 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.2 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:59 The Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +23% CIN PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 4:46 The Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PIT CIN: Punt
3 Q3 11:34 C. Boswell had a 42-yard field goal blockedKicks · 84% expected for him +12% CIN PIT: Touchdown
4 Q3 10:02 The Bengals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% CIN CIN: Field goal
5 Q3 7:40 The Bengals converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +12% CIN CIN: Field goal
6 Q3 4:45 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% PIT CIN: Field goal
7 Q4 13:35 The Bengals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throwsFalse Start on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% PIT CIN: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 11:14 The Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +15% PIT CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zack Moss (CIN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 61% · Bengals 39%

Final margin
Steelers by 6
Luck in points
4.5 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 69% · Bengals 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Steelers · Bengals

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